The Sabres stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.88–3.34 and won anyway.
The Devils owned this game by the underlying numbers and still lost 3-1. Buffalo's expected-goals deficit (2.88–3.34) looked like a scoreline-in-waiting, and for most of the night, that's how it played. The divergence came down to one variable: net-minding.
U. Luukkonen turned in one of those performances that rewrites a game's story. He stopped 2.34 goals above his expected save rate, meaning the Devils' high-quality chances — 3 each, matched perfectly with Buffalo — found no daylight. Across 26 saves on 27 shots, he didn't just prevent goals; he denied the Devils the finish their xG suggested they'd earned. J. Allen, for New Jersey, saved 0.88 above expected but couldn't bridge the gap.
The Devils controlled possession (52% of shot attempts, 27–25 on goal) and crashed the net methodically: 4 rebound chances, 0 conversions. Buffalo played looser — lethal on the rush with 2 goals on 16 chances — and converted when it mattered. Peyton Krebs's wrist shot from the slot decided it.
This was a game where the scoreboard and the analytics disagreed sharply. New Jersey played the smarter game and walked away with the loss. That's goaltending's power: one save or one soft goal swings entire metrics.
