The Stars stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.89–3.56 and won anyway.
The Stars won 5–1, but the underlying numbers suggested Toronto should have had the edge. Dallas trailed 3.56–3.89 in expected goals, yet still scored four more than the Leafs—a four-goal swing that can be traced directly to J. Oettinger's net.
J. Oettinger posted a 0.964 save percentage on 27 of 28 shots, stopping 2.89 goals above expected. On high-danger chances alone, he was perfect: 9 for 9. That defensive ceiling was the difference between a close contest and a rout.
Toronto wasted a quality advantage. The Leafs generated 3.89 expected goals but scored just one, underperforming by 2.89. More specifically, they finished 0 for 9 on high-danger chances—a drought that rarely persists. D. Hildeby (TOR) made 17 saves on 21 shots (0.810 SV%), meaning the Leafs' offensive collapse, not goaltending collapse, sank them.
Dallas capitalized on volume where it mattered. The Stars generated 3.56 xG from just 22 shots on goal (44% of attempts), out-muscling Toronto's 28 SOG—a quality-over-quantity advantage. More crucially, they scored four goals off 24 rush chances, an unusually high conversion rate that exploited the Leafs' transition defense. Toronto created seven rebound opportunities but converted zero; Dallas created three and converted one, demonstrating superior net-front discipline.
High-danger chances ran nearly even at 8–9, with Dallas generating one fewer than Toronto. Yet the goal differential was four. That's variance—extreme variance. Oettinger didn't steal the game so much as he made Toronto's inability to score look worse than it actually was.
