Motion-blurred skater in a Edmonton Oilers sweater

Breakdown · VGK at EDM

Oilers hold off the Golden Knights

FinalSun, Dec 21

VGKVegas Golden Knights3 EDMEdmonton Oilers4

The verdict · stolen

The Oilers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.27–3.31 and won anyway.

VGK 3 · EDM 4

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 9:42 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Edmonton stole this game. The Golden Knights dominated expected goals 56–44, outshooting 4.27 to 3.31 xG, yet lost 4–3. The margin wasn't close on play quality — Vegas created nearly twice as many high-danger chances (7–4). This was goaltending.

C. Ingram (EDM) finished at 0.903 SV%, 1.27 goals above expected. C. Hart (VGK) managed 0.810 SV%, 0.69 goals shy of expected. That gap decided it.

Edmonton's finishing helped. They converted three goals on 24 rush attempts, pressing the pace when structure favored Vegas. The Oilers' power play was lethal too, scoring twice on ten shots (0.93 xG), whereas Vegas managed the same two PPGs on 21 attempts (1.79 xG) — Edmonton compressed their chances.

Mitch Marner's snap shot from the doorstep (P3, 05:49) was the critical moment. Vegas did everything right offensively, crashing for rebounds and generating 3 opportunities (converting 2), but ran into an Oilers team that executed in pockets.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Dec 21

VGK

EDM

Oilers hold off the Golden Knights

Chances 4.3 – 3.3Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

VGK

4.27

EDM

3.31

56% of the chances44%

The board read VGK 3, EDM 4. The chances read VGK 4.3, EDM 3.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

EDM

+0.7

goals above expected

EDM3.31 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

VGK4.27 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 09:11EDMC. McDavid0–1
P1 14:37EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0–2
P2 02:22EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0–3
P2 07:45EDMZ. Hyman0–4
P2 12:59VGKT. HertlPP1–4
P3 03:52VGKP. DorofeyevPP2–4
P3 05:49VGKM. Marner3–4

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

VGK

46 shots

Final

83 shots

EDM

37 shots

VGK EDM GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 4 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

VGKEDM

2 / 7

1.59 xG

High danger

0 / 4

0.94 xG

1 / 21

2.24 xG

Medium

3 / 15

1.84 xG

0 / 35

0.43 xG

Low

1 / 32

0.52 xG

High-danger looks: VGK 2 of 7, EDM 0 of 4.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

C. Ingram

+1.3

EDM · 28/31

C. Hart

−0.7

VGK · 17/21

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Oilers hold off the Golden Knights

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 8–12

09:11EDMC. McDavid(L. Draisaitl, A. Regula)0–1
14:37EDMR. Nugent-Hopkinspower play(L. Draisaitl, C. McDavid)0–2

2ndshots 10–6

02:22EDMR. Nugent-Hopkinspower play(C. McDavid, Z. Hyman)0–3
07:45EDMZ. Hyman(D. Nurse, R. Nugent-Hopkins)0–4
12:59VGKT. Hertlpower play(M. Marner, N. Hanifin)1–4

3rdshots 13–3

03:52VGKP. Dorofeyevpower play(T. Hertl, N. Hanifin)2–4
05:49VGKM. Marner(T. Hertl, N. Hanifin)3–4

score reads VGK–EDM

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.31

EDM chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.7

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.031

EDM puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

44.7%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.27Expected goals3.31

VGK 56% of the chance quality

31Shots on goal21

7High-danger chances4

63All attempts (Corsi)51

Adjusted for score: VGK 60% · EDM 40%

Faceoffs · EDM won29%off41%neu75%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

VGK2 / 7 · 1.59 xG

EDM0 / 4 · 0.94 xG

Medium dangermid-range

VGK1 / 21 · 2.24 xG

EDM3 / 15 · 1.84 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

VGK0 / 35 · 0.43 xG

EDM1 / 32 · 0.52 xG

VGK went 1-for-21 from medium danger on 2.24 expected goals — 1.2 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

VGK

3 G · 4.27 xG · -1.3

EDM

4 G · 3.31 xG · +0.7

012345

VGK finished -1.3 against expected, EDM +0.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

VGK

SNAP3/9

WRIST0/23

SLAP0/9

TIP IN0/3

BACKHAND0/1

BAT0/1

OTHER0/17

EDM

SNAP2/18

WRIST0/3

SLAP0/3

TIP IN1/6

BACKHAND1/6

BAT0/1

OTHER0/14

VGK

EDM

Off the rush

1 G on 31

3.15 xG

3 G on 24

2.09 xG

Off rebounds

2 G on 3

0.53 xG

0 G on 2

0.31 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: VGK went 3-for-9, EDM 2-for-18. EDM scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

C. Hart

VGK · 17/21 · .810

-0.7

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.9+0.9

Medium3/151.8-1.2

Low1/320.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Ingram

EDM · 28/31 · .903

+1.3

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/71.6-0.4

Medium1/212.2+1.2

Low0/350.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

83 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

VGK

46 shots

Final

83 shots

EDM

37 shots

VGK EDM GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, EDM right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

N. Hanifin

#15 · D · VGK

0 G · 3 A · 4 SOG · 26:28 on ice

R. Nugent-Hopkins

#93 · C · EDM

2 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 19:49 on ice · +1

C. McDavid

#97 · C · EDM

1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG · 19:46 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Dec 21

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 9:28 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.5 game with the Oilers at 50% win probability. Genuine pick'em territory.

Vegas holds a marginal possession advantage. The Golden Knights sit at 54.0% expected goals share and 52.0% Corsi%, compared to Edmonton's 52.0% xG% and 50.0% Corsi%. Both teams are running cold—Vegas's PDO of 0.983 and Edmonton's 0.982 point to positive regression for each, canceling out any edge.

The Oilers arrive on one day of rest. Vegas comes off three. That gap could surface in the third period or beyond.

C. Pickard's status is worth monitoring. A back-to-back start could force Edmonton toward a backup, destabilizing its goaltending.

Vegas's Tomas Hertl runs the offense at 0.88 xG/60 with 5 goals and 17 assists. Brandon Saad (0.91 xG/60) is likely out. Edmonton's attack centers on Zach Hyman—1.23 xG/60, 14 goals, 13 assists, shooting at 13.0%—and Connor McDavid. McDavid's 0.92 xG/60 undersells his impact: 25 goals, 33 assists, and a 13.7% shooting rate that belongs in the elite tier. When he shoots, he scores.

Rasmus Andersson (Vegas) and Jake Walman (Edmonton) represent defensive vulnerabilities. Neither team generates from hard chances or rebounds—both at 0%—which leaves the outcome to goaltending, line matching, and depth execution.

In a true 50-50 game, marginal advantages decide: rest, goaltender durability, and one player's conversion rate outrunning expected goals.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

EDM 50%

50%

EDM

Model favorite

50%

VGK50EDM

EDM by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score VGK 2.5–2.5 EDM; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK← edge

edge →EDM

54.0%52.0%

52.0%50.0%

2.522.64

2.112.47

2.122.13

2.102.29

0.9830.982

VGK holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 0.982) says VGK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

VGK

6-1-3

+2 GD · 3d rest

EDM

6-3-1

+11 GD · 1d rest

0.983

VGK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.982

EDM PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Oilers' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

C. Pickard is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Oilers' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.
The Golden Knights have 2 more days of rest.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

VGK

Expected in goal

C. Hart

3 days rest.970 last start

Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

EDM

Expected in goal

C. Pickard

back-to-back.889 last start

Backup Connor Ingram · +1.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK

Brandon Saad3G 6A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh

Tomas Hertl5G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh

EDM

Zach Hyman14G 13A

1.23 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.0% sh

Connor McDavid25G 33A

0.92 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh

Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page