The Lightning won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The expected goals said this was close—a 3.21–2.96 split favored Tampa Bay by less than a goal. The scoreboard told a different story: 4–1. A. Vasilevskiy made the difference. He posted a 0.958 SV% (23/24 saves) and finished 1.96 goals above expected, suffocating the Blues' high-danger looks by posting a perfect 6-for-6 save rate on the six most dangerous chances.
St. Louis generated quality through selective pressure, creating looks the shot count (24 to 17) did not reflect. The high-danger chance split (6–4 in the Lightning's favor) understated neither team's threat, yet J. Binnington's execution faltered. He finished 0.79 goals below expected on 17 shots, allowing the Lightning to convert at a rate the underlying numbers suggested should've stayed tighter.
The Lightning broke away through efficiency. They scored 4 goals on 20 rush attempts. The power play added margin with 2 goals on 10 shots. When elite goaltending aligns with efficient seizing of chances, close xG becomes a decisive scoreline.
The Lightning held 42% of shot attempts—a possession disadvantage rendered academic by Vasilevskiy's performance. One team capitalized on chances while its goalie exceeded expectations; the other underperformed both metrics.
