Breakdown · NYR at WSH

Rangers pull away from the Capitals

FinalTue, Dec 23

NYRNew York Rangers7 WSHWashington Capitals3

The verdict · coin flip

The Rangers won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

NYR 7 · WSH 3

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 9:38 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Capitals controlled the play but lacked execution—the Rangers won 7-3 despite an expected goals deficit. Washington held 60% of shot attempts (32–21 on goal) and a 4.07–3.82 xG edge, yet managed three goals. The Capitals generated eight high-danger chances to New York's seven, a gap that should have favored them. Instead, elite finishing and a stark goaltending divide decided the match.

I. Shesterkin's 0.906 save percentage—29 saves on 32 shots—came 1.07 goals above expected. L. Thompson's 0.700 save percentage—14 saves on 20 shots—came 2.18 goals below expected.

The Rangers converted ruthlessly in prime areas: 4 goals on 7 high-danger chances (57%), and 6 off the rush on 25 chances. Washington attacked the net effectively (6 rebound opportunities, 2 converted) but lacked precision. V. Trocheck's backhander from the slot at 18:09 of the third proved the turning point.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Dec 23

NYR

WSH

Rangers pull away from the Capitals

Chances 3.8 – 4.1Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Rangers took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

NYR

3.82

WSH

4.07

48% of the chances52%

The board read NYR 7, WSH 3. The chances read NYR 3.8, WSH 4.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYR

+3.2

goals above expected

NYR3.82 expected · 7 scored

Expected

Scored

WSH4.07 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

The Rangers scored 3.2 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 14:57NYRT. Raddysh1–0
P2 00:23WSHJ. Carlson1–1
P2 08:40WSHD. StromePP1–2
P2 11:14NYRW. CuyllePP2–2
P2 12:11WSHA. Protas2–3
P3 08:10NYRT. Raddysh3–3
P3 09:18NYRA. Lafrenière4–3

+3 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYR

35 shots

Final

88 shots

WSH

53 shots

NYR WSH GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 7 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYRWSH

4 / 7

1.98 xG

High danger

1 / 8

1.77 xG

3 / 12

1.46 xG

Medium

1 / 16

1.50 xG

0 / 36

0.38 xG

Low

1 / 48

0.81 xG

The Rangers buried 4 of 7 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

I. Shesterkin

+1.1

NYR · 29/32

L. Thompson

−2.2

WSH · 14/20

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Rangers pull away from the Capitals

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 5–6

14:57NYRT. Raddysh(J. Brodzinski, B. Schneider)1–0

2ndshots 5–15

00:23WSHJ. Carlson(A. Protas, R. Leonard)1–1
08:40WSHD. Stromepower play(C. McMichael, R. Leonard)1–2
11:14NYRW. Cuyllepower play(M. Zibanejad, V. Trocheck)2–2
12:11WSHA. Protas(S. Milano, H. Lapierre)2–3

3rdshots 11–11

08:10NYRT. Raddysh(W. Cuylle, N. Laba)3–3
09:18NYRA. Lafrenière(A. Panarin, S. Morrow)4–3
13:43NYRV. Trocheck(J. Brodzinski, G. Perreault)5–3
17:44NYRA. Panarinempty net(M. Zibanejad, A. Lafrenière)6–3
18:09NYRV. Trocheck(W. Cuylle, T. Raddysh)7–3

score reads NYR–WSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.82

NYR chances

Goals their shots were worth

+3.2

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.086

NYR puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

43.3%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.82Expected goals4.07

WSH 52% of the chance quality

21Shots on goal32

7High-danger chances8

55All attempts (Corsi)72

Adjusted for score: NYR 43% · WSH 57%

Faceoffs · WSH won63%off39%neu36%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYR4 / 7 · 1.98 xG

WSH1 / 8 · 1.77 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYR3 / 12 · 1.46 xG

WSH1 / 16 · 1.50 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYR0 / 36 · 0.38 xG

WSH1 / 48 · 0.81 xG

NYR went 4-for-7 from high danger on 1.98 expected goals — 2.0 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYR

7 G · 3.82 xG · +3.2

WSH

3 G · 4.07 xG · -1.1

012345678

NYR finished +3.2 against expected, WSH -1.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYR

SNAP2/18

SLAP0/6

BACKHAND2/5

TIP IN2/3

WRIST1/3

OTHER0/20

WSH

SNAP3/31

SLAP0/8

BACKHAND0/6

TIP IN0/5

WRIST0/3

OTHER0/19

NYR

WSH

Off the rush

6 G on 25

3.02 xG

1 G on 30

2.24 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 1

0.22 xG

2 G on 6

1.17 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: NYR went 2-for-18, WSH 3-for-31. NYR scored 6 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Shesterkin

NYR · 29/32 · .906

+1.1

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/81.8+0.8

Medium1/161.5+0.5

Low1/480.8-0.2

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

L. Thompson

WSH · 14/20 · .700

-2.2

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger4/72.0-2.0

Medium3/121.5-1.5

Low0/360.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

88 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYR

35 shots

Final

88 shots

WSH

53 shots

NYR WSH GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYR left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

V. Trocheck

#16 · C · NYR

2 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 19:54 on ice · +2

W. Cuylle

#50 · L · NYR

1 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 18:56 on ice · +2

T. Raddysh

#14 · R · NYR

2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 15:24 on ice · +3

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Dec 23

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 9:37 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The models project a 2.4–2.6 goal game with Washington at 53% win probability. That's your coin flip.

New York is underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10 games. At five-on-five, the Rangers generate expected goals at 48.0% to Washington's 50.0%. Both teams corsi at 49.0%, so Washington's advantage is shot quality, not volume. The Capitals' PDO of 1.018 signals they're running hot. Expect some regression.

J. Quick is on a back-to-back. Watch for either a backup start or a tired veteran.

Alex Ovechkin generates chances at 0.97 xG/60 and converts at 13.8%: 19G–17A with two high-danger goals. Adam Sykora anchors New York with 0.91 xG/60 and 20.0% shooting: 3G–1A. Gabe Perreault provides secondary depth—0.79 xG/60, 13.1% shooting, 8G–11A, two high-danger goals. Anthony Beauvillier mirrors that role for Washington: 0.89 xG/60, 10.4% shooting, 14G–9A, two high-danger goals.

Vincent Iorio is New York's defensive liability. Declan Chisholm is Washington's.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WSH 53%

53%

WSH

Model favorite

47%

53%

NYR50WSH

WSH by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NYR 2.4–2.6 WSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR← edge

edge →WSH

48.0%50.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.262.62

2.402.62

1.882.18

1.901.79

1.0091.018

WSH holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.009 vs 1.018) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYR

4-4-2

-7 GD · 1d rest

WSH

4-3-3

-1 GD · 2d rest

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.018

WSH PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

J. Quick is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Rangers are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYR

Expected in goal

J. Quick

back-to-back.968 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WSH

Expected in goal

C. Lindgren

2 days rest.889 last start

Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

WSH

Alex Ovechkin19G 17A

0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh

Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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