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Motion-blurred skater in a Nashville Predators sweater
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Breakdown · NSH at MIN

Predators edge the Wild in overtime

Final / OTTue, Dec 23
NSHNashville Predators3MINMinnesota Wild2
The verdict · earned

The Predators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NSH 3 · MIN 2
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 9:49 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Predators beat the Wild 3-2 in overtime despite Minnesota's territorial dominance. The Wild controlled 52% of shot attempts (32-29) and nearly matched expected goals (2.92-3.28), yet couldn't finish. Minnesota went 0-for-5 on high-danger chances while Nashville converted its opportunities.

The Wild won't waste chances like this often. They created the second-most dangerous looks on the ice and buried zero — all five high-danger attempts stopped by J. Saros, who posted a 0.938 save percentage, 0.92 goals better than expected. That overperformance explains Minnesota's 0.92-goal shortfall on expected goals: elite goaltending meets offensive futility, and the scoreboard suffers. F. Gustavsson (0.897 SV%) wasn't at fault; the skaters misfired.

The Predators were lethally efficient where it mattered. They scored twice on rush chances, converting a territorial disadvantage into a lead. Nashville's power play compounded the edge — two goals on 16 shots (1.26 xG) against a Minnesota unit with no margin for error. When Steven Stamkos tipped in the game-winner at 00:53 of overtime, Nashville had already decided the game through execution.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Dec 23
NSH
3
MIN
2

Predators edge the Wild in overtime

Chances 3.3 – 2.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Predators earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
NSH
3.28
MIN
2.92
53% of the chances47%

The board read NSH 3, MIN 2. The chances read NSH 3.3, MIN 2.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NSH
−0.3
goals above expected
NSH3.28 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
MIN2.92 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 07:00MINB. Faber0–1
  2. P1 14:28NSHR. O'ReillyPP1–1
  3. P1 17:07NSHR. JosiPP2–1
  4. P2 00:52MINJ. Eriksson EkPP2–2
  5. OT 00:53NSHS. Stamkos3–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NSH
42 shots
3
Final
81 shots
MIN
39 shots
2
NSH attackMIN attack
NSH MIN Goal
42
shots · 3 in
39
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NSHMIN
0 / 2
0.58 xG
High danger
0 / 5
1.22 xG
2 / 19
2.11 xG
Medium
1 / 11
1.23 xG
1 / 33
0.59 xG
Low
1 / 35
0.48 xG

The Wild went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
J. Saros
+0.9
NSH · 30/32
B
F. Gustavsson
+0.3
MIN · 26/29
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Predators edge the Wild in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 8–12
  1. 07:00MINB. Faber(Q. Hughes, N. Sturm)0–1
  2. 14:28NSHR. O'Reillypower play(L. Evangelista, S. Stamkos)1–1
  3. 17:07NSHR. Josipower play(R. O'Reilly, F. Forsberg)2–1
2ndshots 12–11
  1. 00:52MINJ. Eriksson Ekpower play(M. Johansson, K. Kaprizov)2–2
3rdshots 7–9no goals
    OTshots 2–0
    1. 00:53NSHS. Stamkos(E. Haula, N. Blankenburg)3–2

    score reads NSH–MIN

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.28
    NSH chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −0.3
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.016
    NSH puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    51.4%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    3.28Expected goals2.92
    NSH 53% of the chance quality
    29Shots on goal32
    2High-danger chances5
    54All attempts (Corsi)51
    Adjusted for score: NSH 52% · MIN 48%
    Faceoffs · MIN won47%off31%neu37%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    NSH0 / 2 · 0.58 xG
    MIN0 / 5 · 1.22 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    NSH2 / 19 · 2.11 xG
    MIN1 / 11 · 1.23 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    NSH1 / 33 · 0.59 xG
    MIN1 / 35 · 0.48 xG

    MIN went 0-for-5 from high danger on 1.22 expected goals — 1.2 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    NSH
    3 G · 3.28 xG · -0.3
    MIN
    2 G · 2.92 xG · -0.9
    01234

    NSH finished -0.3 against expected, MIN -0.9.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    NSH
    WRIST1/21
    SLAP0/9
    TIP IN1/6
    BACKHAND1/3
    SNAP0/2
    BETWEEN LEGS0/1
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    OTHER0/12
    MIN
    WRIST1/28
    SLAP1/2
    TIP IN0/4
    BACKHAND0/2
    SNAP0/2
    BETWEEN LEGS0/0
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    OTHER0/12
    NSH
    MIN
    Off the rush
    2 G on 28
    2.48 xG
    0 G on 23
    2.07 xG
    Off rebounds
    1 G on 1
    0.10 xG
    1 G on 3
    0.39 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: NSH went 1-for-21, MIN 1-for-28. NSH scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    J. Saros
    NSH · 30/32 · .938
    +0.9
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/51.2+1.2
    Medium1/111.2+0.2
    Low1/350.5-0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    F. Gustavsson
    MIN · 26/29 · .897
    +0.3
    saved above expected
    B
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/20.6+0.6
    Medium2/192.1+0.1
    Low1/330.6-0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    81 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    NSH
    42 shots
    3
    Final
    81 shots
    MIN
    39 shots
    2
    NSH attackMIN attack
    NSH MIN Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — NSH left, MIN right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    R. O'Reilly
    #90 · C · NSH
    1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 22:45 on ice · -2
    S. Stamkos
    #91 · C · NSH
    1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 18:24 on ice · -1
    Q. Hughes
    #43 · D · MIN
    0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 29:11 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Tue, Dec 23
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 9:47 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    This matchup is as close to even money as the model permits: the Wild project a 2.4-2.7 goal victory at 54% win probability—barely above a coin flip. Nashville and Minnesota are nearly identical in talent; the small edge belongs to Minnesota.

    The Wild own the underlying play. They generate 52.0% expected goals at 5v5 to Nashville's 49.0%, yet both teams finish with bottom-tier shot quality—Corsi of 50.0% and 48.0%, respectively. Nashville's PDO sits at 0.992, Minnesota's at 1.007. Almost perfect parity.

    Watch for J. Annunen. On a back-to-back, Nashville may pivot to a backup or lean on a tired starter. Goaltending depth becomes the game's hinge.

    Nashville's attack centers on Zachary L'Heureux, who generates 0.85 expected goals per 60 and has converted at a 16.0% rate with 4 goals. Filip Forsberg offers volume at 0.80 xG/60 with 23 goals, though a 13.6% shooting percentage reveals he's both prolific and streaky. Minnesota counters with Matt Boldy, who leads this matchup at 0.89 xG/60 and has been cleaner at 13.7% conversion on 22 goals. Robby Fabbri (0.88 xG/60, 6.9% shooting) is likely out.

    The matchup edges cut both ways. Nashville can exploit Minnesota's Matt Kiersted; Minnesota attacks through Jonathan Marchessault. Both teams have yet to record a high-danger or rebound goal all season. The Wild own the territorial and expected-goals advantage, but parity in shot quality and luck (PDO nearly identical) leaves the door open. Pick the team that breaks through on its first genuine scoring chance.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    MIN 54%
    54%
    MIN
    Model favorite
    46%
    54%
    NSH50MIN

    MIN by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NSH 2.4–2.7 MIN; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    NSH← edge
    edge →MIN
    49.0%52.0%
    50.0%48.0%
    2.482.55
    2.582.40
    1.842.04
    2.211.93
    0.9921.007

    MIN holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.992 vs 1.007) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    NSH
    7-3-0
    +9 GD · 1d rest
    MIN
    7-3-0
    +13 GD · 2d rest
    0.992
    NSH PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.007
    MIN PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
    Things to watch
    • The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
    • J. Annunen is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    NSH
    Expected in goal
    J. Annunen
    back-to-back.941 last start
    Backup Juuse Saros · -9.3 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    MIN
    Expected in goal
    J. Wallstedt
    2 days rest.902 last start
    Backup Filip Gustavsson · +1.4 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    NSH
    Zachary L'Heureux4G 0A
    0.85 xG/60 · 1 HD · 16.0% sh
    Filip Forsberg23G 17A
    0.80 xG/60 · 4 HD · 13.6% sh
    MIN
    Matt Boldy22G 18A
    0.89 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh
    Robby Fabbri2G 3A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.9% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page