The Avalanche won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The Avalanche won 1-0 despite expected goals finishing nearly dead even at 2.89–2.84 — a game the underlying metrics pegged as a toss-up. The story lay in execution: the Mammoth underperformed their xG by 2.84 goals, the Avalanche by 1.89.
The Avalanche controlled 45% of shot attempts (26–32), meaning the Mammoth generated more volume. High-danger chances split 3–3. By the numbers, this should have been a low-scoring, competitive game — not a shutout.
What separated the teams was variance at both ends. The Mammoth created quality looks but couldn't finish them, undershooting their expected output by 2.84 goals. The Avalanche similarly left 1.89 goals on the table but scored when it mattered: Samuel Girard's backhander from the slot in the second period (07:57).
Both goaltenders delivered outsize performances. S. Wedgewood (COL) recorded 32 saves on 32 shots (1.000 SV%), overperforming expected save percentage by 2.84 goals. V. Vanecek (UTA) stopped 25 of 26 (0.962 SV%), beating expectations by 1.89 goals. In a game this statistically even, exceptional goaltending and a single moment of finishing made the difference between a shutout and what the metrics suggested should have been a higher-scoring affair.
