The Golden Knights earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Vegas didn't just beat San Jose—they overperformed their underlying numbers by 2.79 goals, turning a deserved 4.21 expected goals into a 7-2 blowout. That gap tells you everything about a lopsided game where one team's precision exceeded even its excellent play.
The Knights controlled the quality battle thoroughly. They held 63% of 5v5 expected goals (4.21–2.43), crushed San Jose on shot attempts (53%, 26–23), and won the high-danger chance battle 7–4. But execution was the real separator.
Vegas was clinical in the dangerous area: 43% on high-danger chances (3 of 7 converted), a lethal mark that punishes teams for defensive breakdowns. They were unstoppable on the rush—six goals on 28 chances—a rate that speaks to structure and speed that San Jose couldn't contain.
San Jose's underlying game wasn't awful, though. They generated higher-quality looks than their shot total suggested (0.055 xG per shot vs Vegas's 0.088), meaning they created dangerous moments despite being outplayed overall. But their goaltending couldn't salvage it. Y. Askarov gave up 1.41 more goals than expected; A. Nedeljkovic was 1.38 over. Both sank while their defense crumbled around them.
Vegas's C. Hart (21 saves, 0.913 SV%) barely needed to steal anything. The Knights crashed the net effectively, generating five rebound opportunities and converting one. San Jose created four rebounds and also converted one, but on a smaller possession sample.
The turning point came early: Collin Graf's wrist shot from the doorstep at 8:04 of the third. That goal felt emblematic—Vegas capitalizing on its advantages with ruthless efficiency while San Jose foundered trying to claw back.