The Capitals earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Washington won 4-3 in overtime, but the dominance started earlier: the Capitals controlled 60% of 5v5 expected goals (4.91–3.22), turning shot volume into shot quality.
New Jersey had the puck more, notching 54% of shot attempts (38–33 on goal). The underlying metrics revealed why volume mattered less than it appeared. Washington created high-danger chances at a 13-to-4 clip and converted 0.088 expected goals per shot to New Jersey's 0.044—a twofold gap. New Jersey managed to stay lethal off the rush, converting 2 goals on 28 chances, while Washington answered with 3 on 30, showing both teams thrived in transition.
L. Thompson stopped 35 of 38 shots for Washington (0.921 SV%), while J. Allen made 29 saves on 33 shots for New Jersey (0.879 SV%). Allen outperformed his expected performance by 0.91 goals—an unusually strong night for a losing effort—while Washington underperformed its xG by the same margin, suggesting the Capitals' scoreline could have been higher.
Jakob Chychrun's overtime winner came at 04:06, a timely finish to a night where Washington's quality-over-quantity approach finally broke through.