The Wild stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.14–3.45 and won anyway.
The scoreboard lied. Minnesota won 4–3 in overtime, but the Jets controlled the game—58% of shot attempts, 3.45 expected goals to the Wild's 3.14, five high-danger chances. The underlying numbers suggested Winnipeg should have at least tied.
Minnesota won because of variance in the blue paint. The Jets converted zero of five high-danger chances, a miss rate that doesn't persist. Meanwhile, J. Wallstedt stopped all five high-danger shots he faced, a 100% save rate against the threat that matters most. That goaltending swing alone flipped a game the metrics said should go even.
The Wild also overperformed their xG by 0.86 goals. C. Hellebuyck took the loss at 0.789 SV%, sitting 0.86 below what the shot quality demanded.
Both teams succeeded in transition. The Jets buried 2 goals on 24 rush chances; the Wild 4 on 29. That slight edge in rush conversion, layered on top of high-danger variance and goaltending, was enough to steal a game Winnipeg's metrics say they owned.
The overtime winner: Matt Boldy's snap shot from the high slot at 00:39, the last punch when the stat sheet and the scoreboard told different stories.