The Blues won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The Blues won 3–2 against the Predators, though the expected-goals split (3.75–3.92) said Nashville deserved to advance. The closer team's luck held.
Nashville underperformed their xG by 1.92 goals. J. Hofer (STL) stole the show: 30 of 32 saves (0.938 SV%), 1.92 goals better than the shot quality merited. Without that performance, the scoreboard flips.
The raw territory favored Nashville. They held the ball, firing 32 attempts to St. Louis's 20. But St. Louis squeezed danger from scarcity. They generated 0.101 expected goals per shot versus Nashville's 0.054—nearly twice as lethal per attempt.
High-danger chances split 8–7 for St. Louis. Nashville created the better looks in aggregate but couldn't finish. The Predators scored twice on 28 rush chances. The Blues scored twice on 21—more clinical in transition.
The pivot came in the third period, when Fedor Svechkov's wrist shot from a sharp angle put St. Louis ahead. J. Saros (NSH) stopped 17 of 20 (0.850 SV%, +0.75 above expectation), a solid performance against relentless pressure that the final score didn't acknowledge.
St. Louis crashed the net with purpose, creating 4 rebound opportunities but converting none. Nashville managed 3. The Blues' method was surgical: fewer shots, higher conversion, and goaltending that overperformed when it mattered most.
