Motion-blurred skater in a Tampa Bay Lightning sweater

Breakdown · MTL at TBL

Lightning edge the Canadiens in a shootout

Final / OTSun, Dec 28

MTLMontreal Canadiens4 TBLTampa Bay Lightning5

The verdict · stolen

The Lightning stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 5.31–4.62 and won anyway.

MTL 4 · TBL 5

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 10:12 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Tampa Bay won 5-4 in a shootout, but Montreal controlled the underlying game. Expected goals favored the Canadiens 5.31–4.62, and they outshot Tampa 35–21.

J. Johansson (TBL) made the difference. The Lightning goalie posted a 0.886 save percentage and finished +1.31 versus expected, stealing a win his team didn't quite earn at even strength. Montreal's J. Fowler held the line at +0.62, but couldn't overcome his team's conversion failures.

The Canadiens dominated in volume. They took 35 shots to Tampa's 21 and were more dangerous on the rush—four goals from 33 chances versus Tampa's two from 23. High-danger chances went nearly even (8 vs 10 for the Lightning).

But Montreal squandered its volume. Two goals came from low-danger spots—chances a goalie must stop. Seven rebound opportunities generated zero conversions. A team doesn't overcome the underlying advantage when it can't convert.

Brayden Point's snap shot from the slot decided the shootout.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · SO · Dec 28

MTL

TBL

Lightning edge the Canadiens in a shootout

Chances 5.3 – 4.6Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Canadiens deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

MTL

5.31

TBL

4.62

53% of the chances47%

The board read MTL 4, TBL 5. The chances read MTL 5.3, TBL 4.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

TBL

+0.4

goals above expected

TBL4.62 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

MTL5.31 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P2 02:28TBLN. Kucherov0–1
P2 12:11TBLN. Kucherov0–2
P2 14:49TBLN. Paul0–3
P3 01:06MTLI. Demidov1–3
P3 01:40TBLP. Holmberg1–4
P3 09:16MTLJ. Slafkovský2–4
P3 12:17MTLN. Dobson3–4

+3 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

MTL

62 shots

Final

98 shots

TBL

36 shots

MTL TBL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

shots · 4 in

shots · 6 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

MTLTBL

1 / 8

2.13 xG

High danger

2 / 10

2.78 xG

1 / 19

2.31 xG

Medium

1 / 13

1.56 xG

2 / 59

0.87 xG

Low

1 / 24

0.28 xG

The Lightning buried 2 of 10 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

J. Johansson

+1.3

TBL · 31/35

J. Fowler

+0.6

MTL · 17/21

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Lightning edge the Canadiens in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 11–3no goals

2ndshots 6–12

02:28TBLN. Kucherov(G. Goncalves)0–1
12:11TBLN. Kucherov(B. Point, G. Goncalves)0–2
14:49TBLN. Paul(O. Bjorkstrand, M. Groshev)0–3

3rdshots 16–5

01:06MTLI. Demidov(J. Slafkovský, N. Dobson)1–3
01:40TBLP. Holmberg(O. Bjorkstrand, C. D'Astous)1–4
09:16MTLJ. Slafkovský(O. Kapanen)2–4
12:17MTLN. Dobson(C. Caufield, M. Matheson)3–4
19:56MTLJ. Slafkovskýpower play(I. Demidov, L. Hutson)4–4

OTshots 2–1no goals

00:00TBLG. Goncalvespower play4–4
00:00TBLB. Pointpower play4–4

score reads MTL–TBL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.62

TBL chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.4

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.039

TBL puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

35.3%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

5.31Expected goals4.62

MTL 53% of the chance quality

35Shots on goal21

8High-danger chances10

86All attempts (Corsi)47

Adjusted for score: MTL 68% · TBL 32%

Faceoffs · TBL won15%off47%neu61%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

MTL1 / 8 · 2.13 xG

TBL2 / 10 · 2.78 xG

Medium dangermid-range

MTL1 / 19 · 2.31 xG

TBL1 / 13 · 1.56 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

MTL2 / 59 · 0.87 xG

TBL1 / 24 · 0.28 xG

MTL went 1-for-19 from medium danger on 2.31 expected goals — 1.3 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

MTL

4 G · 5.31 xG · -1.3

TBL

5 G · 4.62 xG · +0.4

0123456

MTL finished -1.3 against expected, TBL +0.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

MTL

SNAP4/37

WRIST0/6

TIP IN0/7

SLAP0/6

BACKHAND0/2

BAT0/1

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/26

TBL

SNAP3/15

WRIST0/11

TIP IN1/5

SLAP0/1

BACKHAND0/2

BAT0/0

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/13

MTL

TBL

Off the rush

4 G on 33

2.65 xG

2 G on 23

2.78 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 7

1.59 xG

1 G on 2

0.41 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: MTL went 4-for-37, TBL 3-for-15. MTL scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Fowler

MTL · 17/21 · .810

+0.6

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/102.8+0.8

Medium1/131.6+0.6

Low1/240.3-0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Johansson

TBL · 31/35 · .886

+1.3

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/82.1+1.1

Medium1/192.3+1.3

Low2/590.9-1.1

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

98 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

MTL

62 shots

Final

98 shots

TBL

36 shots

MTL TBL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

Each club shoots toward its own end — MTL left, TBL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Slafkovský

#20 · L · MTL

2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 20:27 on ice · +1

N. Dobson

#53 · D · MTL

1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 27:29 on ice

N. Kucherov

#86 · R · TBL

2 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 19:48 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Dec 28

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 10:29 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model gives Tampa Bay a 57% win probability, projecting a 2.3–2.8 Lightning victory. That confidence rests on Tampa's dominance in play generation.

The Lightning control 5v5 expected goals at 54.0% to Montreal's 48.0%—a structural edge in chance quality. That translates to shot volume: Tampa's 53.0% Corsi rate to Montreal's 49.0% means the Lightning dictate pace and territory.

But both teams are running hot. Tampa's PDO sits at 1.019, Montreal's at 1.018. They're converting chances faster than underlying play predicts, which means regression looms for both.

Montreal's offensive weight falls on Cole Caufield, who generates 0.97 expected goals per 60 minutes and has 33 goals and 16 assists on a 20.0% shooting rate. His production includes just 1 high-danger goal—oddly efficient. Oliver Kapanen (0.83 xG/60, 19 goals, 12 assists at 17.8% shooting) is secondary but has 4 high-danger goals, suggesting he's been finishing at the paint.

Tampa counters with Brandon Hagel leading at 1.10 xG/60—23 goals, 26 assists, 15.8% shooting, 2 high-danger goals. Anthony Cirelli (0.95 xG/60, 15 goals, 18 assists, 17.0% shooting) has 5 high-danger goals, meaning more of his scoring comes from dangerous chances.

The model favors Tampa's structural advantages. The PDO numbers predict one or both teams regress. If regression hits Montreal first, Tampa's edge widens. If it hits both simultaneously, this stays competitive.

Defensively, Montreal has Mike Matheson as a weak link; Tampa has Victor Hedman. Watch how each team's stars are deployed against those spots.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

TBL 57%

57%

TBL

Model favorite

43%

57%

MTL50TBL

TBL by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score MTL 2.3–2.8 TBL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

MTL← edge

edge →TBL

48.0%54.0%

49.0%53.0%

2.412.67

2.622.28

2.242.38

1.961.85

1.0181.019

TBL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 1.019) says TBL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

MTL

5-3-2

+5 GD · 4d rest

TBL

4-5-1

+4 GD · 5d rest

1.018

MTL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.019

TBL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Lightning own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
The Lightning drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Lightning's PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Lightning own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
The Lightning drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
The Lightning's PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

MTL

Expected in goal

J. Fowler

4 days rest.929 last start

Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

TBL

Expected in goal

A. Vasilevskiy

5 days rest.958 last start

Backup Andrei Vasilevskiy · +24.7 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

MTL

Cole Caufield33G 16A

0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh

Oliver Kapanen19G 12A

0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh

TBL

Brandon Hagel23G 26A

1.10 xG/60 · 2 HD · 15.8% sh

Anthony Cirelli15G 18A

0.95 xG/60 · 5 HD · 17.0% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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