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Motion-blurred skater in a Florida Panthers sweater
← Mon, Dec 29 · the slate
Breakdown · WSH at FLA

Panthers hold off the Capitals

FinalMon, Dec 29
WSHWashington Capitals3FLAFlorida Panthers5
The verdict · coin flip

The Panthers won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

WSH 3 · FLA 5
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 10:29 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Capitals had the better looks. They generated 0.092 expected goals per shot against Florida's 0.070 and forced eight high-danger chances to the Panthers' seven. Yet they lost 5-3 because they underperformed their underlying numbers by 1.53 goals while S. Bobrovsky (FLA) overperformed his by the same margin. The verdict was goaltending.

L. Thompson faced the harder shots. His 24 saves on 28 attempts (0.857 SV%) showed the volume; Bobrovsky's 24 on 27 (0.889 SV%) and +1.53 above expected showed the difference. Washington's goalie couldn't match his counterpart when it mattered.

Florida compensated with ruthless conversion. They scored three goals on 33 rush chances, a rate that turned secondary looks into decisive goals. That efficiency, paired with Bobrovsky's dominance, overcame an otherwise even game on paper (4.88 xG to 4.53) and produced a two-goal margin.

S. Reinhart (2G, 1A) spearheaded the Panthers. Washington's D. Strome (1G, 2A) and T. Wilson (2G, 1A) generated volume but couldn't bridge the goaltending gap. The Capitals showed one bright spot: their power play converted 2 on 20 shots (1.93 xG), sharper than their even-strength play.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Dec 29
WSH
3
FLA
5

Panthers hold off the Capitals

Chances 4.5 – 4.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Panthers took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
WSH
4.53
FLA
4.88
48% of the chances52%

The board read WSH 3, FLA 5. The chances read WSH 4.5, FLA 4.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
FLA
+0.1
goals above expected
FLA4.88 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
WSH4.53 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

The Capitals left 1.5 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 03:53WSHT. Wilson1–0
  2. P1 04:35FLAA. Lundell1–1
  3. P1 12:45FLAS. ReinhartPP1–2
  4. P1 19:17WSHT. WilsonPP2–2
  5. P3 03:11WSHD. StromePP3–2
  6. P3 06:16FLAB. Marchand3–3
  7. P3 13:12FLAA. Ekblad3–4
+1 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
WSH
43 shots
3
Final
91 shots
FLA
48 shots
5
WSH attackFLA attack
WSH FLA Goal
43
shots · 3 in
48
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
WSHFLA
1 / 8
2.09 xG
High danger
1 / 7
1.95 xG
1 / 17
1.94 xG
Medium
3 / 19
2.32 xG
1 / 24
0.50 xG
Low
1 / 44
0.61 xG

High-danger looks: WSH 1 of 8, FLA 1 of 7.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
S. Bobrovsky
+1.5
FLA · 24/27
B+
L. Thompson
+0.9
WSH · 24/28
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Panthers hold off the Capitals

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–10
  1. 03:53WSHT. Wilson(M. Fehérváry, D. Strome)1–0
  2. 04:35FLAA. Lundell(J. Petry)1–1
  3. 12:45FLAS. Reinhartpower play(S. Jones, B. Marchand)1–2
  4. 19:17WSHT. Wilsonpower play(D. Strome, J. Chychrun)2–2
2ndshots 12–8no goals
    3rdshots 5–11
    1. 03:11WSHD. Stromepower play(T. Wilson, A. Protas)3–2
    2. 06:16FLAB. Marchand(S. Bennett, S. Jones)3–3
    3. 13:12FLAA. Ekblad(S. Reinhart, A. Lundell)3–4
    4. 19:25FLAS. Reinhartempty net(E. Luostarinen, A. Ekblad)3–5

    score reads WSH–FLA

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    4.88
    FLA chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +0.1
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.010
    FLA puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    58.8%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    4.53Expected goals4.88
    FLA 52% of the chance quality
    27Shots on goal29
    8High-danger chances7
    49All attempts (Corsi)70
    Adjusted for score: WSH 42% · FLA 58%
    Faceoffs · FLA won52%off47%neu39%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    WSH1 / 8 · 2.09 xG
    FLA1 / 7 · 1.95 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    WSH1 / 17 · 1.94 xG
    FLA3 / 19 · 2.32 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    WSH1 / 24 · 0.50 xG
    FLA1 / 44 · 0.61 xG

    WSH went 1-for-8 from high danger on 2.09 expected goals — 1.1 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    WSH
    3 G · 4.53 xG · -1.5
    FLA
    5 G · 4.88 xG · +0.1
    0123456

    WSH finished -1.5 against expected, FLA +0.1.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    WSH
    WRIST1/9
    SNAP2/18
    SLAP0/7
    TIP IN0/6
    BACKHAND0/2
    DEFLECTED0/1
    BAT0/0
    OTHER0/6
    FLA
    WRIST1/25
    SNAP0/5
    SLAP1/3
    TIP IN1/2
    BACKHAND1/5
    DEFLECTED0/5
    BAT1/3
    OTHER0/22
    WSH
    FLA
    Off the rush
    1 G on 27
    3.22 xG
    3 G on 33
    3.82 xG
    Off rebounds
    1 G on 2
    0.39 xG
    1 G on 3
    0.47 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: WSH went 1-for-9, FLA 1-for-25. FLA scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    L. Thompson
    WSH · 24/28 · .857
    +0.9
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/71.9+0.9
    Medium3/192.3-0.7
    Low1/440.6-0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    S. Bobrovsky
    FLA · 24/27 · .889
    +1.5
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/82.1+1.1
    Medium1/171.9+0.9
    Low1/240.5-0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    91 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    WSH
    43 shots
    3
    Final
    91 shots
    FLA
    48 shots
    5
    WSH attackFLA attack
    WSH FLA Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, FLA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    S. Reinhart
    #13 · C · FLA
    2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 23:25 on ice · +3
    D. Strome
    #17 · C · WSH
    1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 20:56 on ice
    T. Wilson
    #43 · R · WSH
    2 G · 1 A · 6 SOG · 20:48 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Mon, Dec 29
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 10:12 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The models love this matchup's indecision. Projections hover at 2.6 to 2.7 goals per team, and Florida's win probability stands at 52%—barely distinguishable from a coin flip. The game will likely hinge on which team's underlying tendencies hold up or which regresses first.

    Recent form favors Florida. The Panthers have posted a 7-3-0 record over their last 10 games, while Washington sits at -12 in goal differential during the same stretch. That spread suggests the Capitals are struggling; Florida is surfing momentum despite mediocre underlying numbers.

    The five-on-five metrics tell a different story. Washington's expected goals percentage sits at 50.0%, barely ahead of Florida's 49.0%, but Florida controls territorial play—their 52.0% Corsi to Washington's 49.0% means they're spending more time in the Capitals' zone. Where Washington holds an edge is luck: their PDO of 1.018 is running hot, while Florida's 0.989 suggests they've been snakebitten. One will regress, and it will matter.

    The goaltending matchup carries wrinkles. Both S. Bobrovsky and L. Thompson face back-to-backs, which complicates starter decisions and introduces fatigue as a variable for either team.

    Florida's firepower centers on Sam Bennett, whose 0.97 xG per 60, 18G, 19A, and 6 high-danger goals signal he's both creating and finishing at an elite clip. Brad Marchand adds 0.93 xG/60 with 17G 9A and a 19.5% shooting rate; that elevated finish rate suggests some regression is due. Washington counters with Alex Ovechkin—0.97 xG/60, 19G 17A, and a 13.8% shooting rate that's sustainable. Anthony Beauvillier rounds out the Capitals' attack with 0.89 xG/60 and 14G 9A, production that could swing a tight contest.

    Form and talent conflict here. Take the model.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    FLA 52%
    51%
    FLA
    Model favorite
    49%
    51%
    WSH50FLA

    FLA by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score WSH 2.6–2.7 FLA; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    WSH← edge
    edge →FLA
    50.0%49.0%
    49.0%52.0%
    2.622.48
    2.622.56
    2.181.98
    1.792.21
    1.0180.989

    WSH holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 0.989) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    WSH
    3-4-3
    -12 GD · 1d rest
    FLA
    7-3-0
    +6 GD · 1d rest
    1.018
    WSH PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.989
    FLA PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Regression watch
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • S. Bobrovsky is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Panthers are the hotter team by points pace (7-3-0 in their last 10).
    • The Capitals are underwater at -12 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    WSH
    Expected in goal
    L. Thompson
    back-to-back.921 last start
    Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    FLA
    Expected in goal
    S. Bobrovsky
    back-to-back.875 last start
    Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · -12.2 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    WSH
    Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
    0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
    Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
    0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
    FLA
    Sam Bennett18G 19A
    0.97 xG/60 · 6 HD · 13.1% sh
    Brad Marchand17G 9A
    0.93 xG/60 · 3 HD · 19.5% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page