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Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater
← Tue, Dec 30 · the slate
Breakdown · NYI at CHI

Islanders edge the Blackhawks in a shootout

Final / OTTue, Dec 30
NYINew York Islanders3CHIChicago Blackhawks2
The verdict · coin flip

The Islanders won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

NYI 3 · CHI 2
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 10:26 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Islanders won 3-2 in a shootout, but Chicago created more high-danger scoring chances — 4 to New York's 3 — indicating underlying play that favored the visitors.

Chicago controlled 48% of shot attempts and nearly matched expected goals at 2.64 versus 2.59. Yet the high-danger chances told a different story. New York converted efficiently off the rush: 2 goals on 22 rush chances.

D. Rittich made 17 of 19 saves, exceeding expected performance by 0.64 goals. S. Knight stopped 19 of 21, a +0.59 outperformance. Both played above their norms.

Chicago created 3 rebound opportunities and converted zero. New York's rush efficiency and Bo Horvat's shootout precision — a snap from the high slot — decided it.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Dec 30
NYI
3
CHI
2

Islanders edge the Blackhawks in a shootout

Chances 2.6 – 2.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Islanders took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
NYI
2.59
CHI
2.64
50% of the chances50%

The board read NYI 3, CHI 2. The chances read NYI 2.6, CHI 2.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NYI
+0.4
goals above expected
NYI2.59 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
CHI2.64 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 02:56NYIC. Ritchie1–0
  2. P1 12:08NYIB. HorvatPP2–0
  3. P2 15:31CHIT. Teravainen2–1
  4. P2 19:57CHIN. LardisPP2–2
  5. SO 00:00NYIB. HorvatPP2–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NYI
36 shots
3
Final
81 shots
CHI
45 shots
2
NYI attackCHI attack
NYI CHI Goal
36
shots · 3 in
45
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NYICHI
0 / 4
1.02 xG
High danger
0 / 3
0.70 xG
2 / 10
1.13 xG
Medium
2 / 9
1.23 xG
0 / 37
0.44 xG
Low
0 / 42
0.70 xG

The Blackhawks went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B
D. Rittich
+0.6
NYI · 17/19
B
S. Knight
+0.6
CHI · 19/21
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Islanders edge the Blackhawks in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–7
  1. 02:56NYIC. Ritchie(S. Holmstrom, M. Shabanov)1–0
  2. 12:08NYIB. Horvatpower play(M. Barzal, M. Schaefer)2–0
2ndshots 4–7
  1. 15:31CHIT. Teravainen(O. Moore, A. Levshunov)2–1
  2. 19:57CHIN. Lardispower play(O. Moore, R. Greene)2–2
3rdshots 6–3no goals
    OTshots 1–2no goals
      SO
      1. 00:00NYIB. Horvatpower play2–2

      score reads NYI–CHI

      Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
      Process vs result

      The numbers

      XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
      2.59
      NYI chances
      Goals their shots were worth
      +0.4
      Finishing
      Goals above what those chances were worth
      1.002
      NYI puck luck
      About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
      48.6%
      Shot attempts
      Under half — they were outshot
      Split by club

      Who controlled the game

      2.59Expected goals2.64
      CHI 50% of the chance quality
      21Shots on goal19
      4High-danger chances3
      51All attempts (Corsi)54
      Adjusted for score: NYI 45% · CHI 55%
      Faceoffs · CHI won39%off56%neu43%def
      Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
      How the game was won

      The danger ladder

      shotsgoalsexpected
      High dangerslot & crease
      NYI0 / 4 · 1.02 xG
      CHI0 / 3 · 0.70 xG
      Medium dangermid-range
      NYI2 / 10 · 1.13 xG
      CHI2 / 9 · 1.23 xG
      Low dangerperimeter & point
      NYI0 / 37 · 0.44 xG
      CHI0 / 42 · 0.70 xG

      NYI went 0-for-4 from high danger on 1.02 expected goals — 1.0 left on the table.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
      The luck layer

      Finishing vs expected

      expectedactual
      NYI
      3 G · 2.59 xG · +0.4
      CHI
      2 G · 2.64 xG · -0.6
      01234

      NYI finished +0.4 against expected, CHI -0.6.

      Source · Backcheck xG model
      Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
      What they shot — and what went in

      Shot diet

      goalsshots
      NYI
      WRIST1/22
      SLAP0/4
      SNAP1/1
      TIP IN0/4
      BACKHAND0/2
      POKE0/1
      DEFLECTED0/0
      OTHER0/17
      CHI
      WRIST0/26
      SLAP0/5
      SNAP2/7
      TIP IN0/2
      BACKHAND0/1
      POKE0/0
      DEFLECTED0/1
      OTHER0/12
      NYI
      CHI
      Off the rush
      2 G on 22
      2.02 xG
      1 G on 23
      2.01 xG
      Off rebounds
      0 G on 2
      0.31 xG
      0 G on 3
      0.23 xG

      Wrist shots carried the volume: NYI went 1-for-22, CHI 0-for-26. NYI scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
      New to these numbers?

      Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

      The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

      xG
      Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
      HD
      High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
      Corsi
      Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
      Adj.
      Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
      GSAx
      Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
      PDO
      Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
      Shot by shot

      In the net

      Graded on goals saved above expected
      D. Rittich
      NYI · 17/19 · .895
      +0.6
      saved above expected
      B
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/30.7+0.7
      Medium2/91.2-0.8
      Low0/420.7+0.7

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      S. Knight
      CHI · 19/21 · .905
      +0.6
      saved above expected
      B
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/41.0+1.0
      Medium2/101.1-0.9
      Low0/370.4+0.4

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      81 shots · press play to watch the game back

      Where the shots came from

      NHL play-by-play coordinates
      NYI
      36 shots
      3
      Final
      81 shots
      CHI
      45 shots
      2
      NYI attackCHI attack
      NYI CHI Goal

      Each club shoots toward its own end — NYI left, CHI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

      Ranked from the box score

      Three stars

      Points first
      Three stars · computed, not voted
      O. Moore
      #11 · C · CHI
      0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 15:21 on ice · +1
      M. Schaefer
      #48 · D · NYI
      0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 26:54 on ice
      M. Barzal
      #13 · C · NYI
      0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 23:17 on ice
      Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
      What the model said beforehand

      Before the game

      Written Tue, Dec 30
      Open the pre-game read
      Written from the numbers

      The read

      Edited for clarity
      ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 10:25 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

      The model projects a 2.7-2.5 Islanders victory with New York at 53% win probability. This is as close to a pick'em as modern analytics produces.

      New York carries form advantages that mask a closer underlying game. The Islanders are 5-4-1 over their last 10 games while Chicago sits at -19 goal differential—a gap between hot and struggling. Yet the underlying play tightens considerably. New York's 48.0% 5v5 expected goals share surpasses Chicago's 42.0%, and the Islanders' 49.0% Corsi% indicates possession dominance. Both metrics favor the Islanders, yet Chicago's 0.996 PDO sits marginally above New York's 0.993, implying neither team should expect shooting luck to dramatically pivot. The Blackhawks remain alive through goaltending variance.

      S. Knight faces a back-to-back situation—the kind of variable that can swing games without appearing in traditional stat lines. A tired starter or an unplanned backup could tilt momentum.

      Anders Lee anchors New York's offense: 1.20 expected goals per 60 minutes, 9 goals and 20 assists, with 2 high-danger chances and a 6.4% shooting rate that suggests sustainable scoring. Bo Horvat pursues a different profile—0.87 xG/60, 18 goals, a 12.8% shooting rate edging toward regression. Chicago counters with Tyler Bertuzzi, whose 18.0% shooting rate (20 goals, 7 high-danger chances) represents obvious payback risk. Connor Bedard carries deeper ballast: 0.82 xG/60, 17 goals, and 27 assists indicate a playmaker whose value survives the scoring decline inevitable in all NHL careers.

      Defensive vulnerabilities matter in games this close. Alexander Romanov represents New York's weakest link; Anton Frondell occupies the equivalent for Chicago. Exploiting those gaps could matter more than which team's underlying luck regresses faster.

      New York owns the underlying advantage. Chicago's ceiling remains high. The model calls it a coin flip, and the rosters agree.

      What the model said beforehand

      The model's lean

      NYI 53%
      53%
      NYI
      Model favorite
      53%
      47%
      NYI50CHI

      NYI by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NYI 2.7–2.5 CHI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

      Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
      Season rates · 5v5

      Tale of the tape

      NHL stats API · our xG
      NYI← edge
      edge →CHI
      48.0%42.0%
      49.0%46.0%
      2.482.17
      2.692.94
      1.781.84
      1.942.41
      0.9930.996

      NYI holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 0.996) says CHI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

      Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
      Form · Last 10
      NYI
      5-4-1
      -2 GD · 2d rest
      CHI
      2-8-0
      -19 GD · 1d rest
      0.993
      NYI PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      0.996
      CHI PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      What decides it

      Keys to the game

      Where the edges live
      • The Islanders own the underlying play — 48.0% 5v5 xG vs 42.0%.
      Things to watch
      • The Islanders own the underlying play — 48.0% 5v5 xG vs 42.0%.
      • S. Knight is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
      • The Islanders are the hotter team by points pace (5-4-1 in their last 10).
      • The Blackhawks are underwater at -19 goal differential over their last 10.
      Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

      Lineups

      NHL box score
      NYI
      Expected in goal
      D. Rittich
      2 days rest.912 last start
      Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      CHI
      Expected in goal
      S. Knight
      back-to-back.556 last start
      Backup Spencer Knight · +10.9 GSAx this season
      Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

      Computed danger · scouting

      Players to watch

      NHL stats API · our xG
      NYI
      Anders Lee9G 20A
      1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh
      Bo Horvat18G 10A
      0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh
      CHI
      Tyler Bertuzzi20G 15A
      0.85 xG/60 · 7 HD · 18.0% sh
      Connor Bedard17G 27A
      0.82 xG/60 · 5 HD · 11.8% sh
      Keep going

      Where to next

      Back to the front page