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Motion-blurred skater in a Colorado Avalanche sweater
← Wed, Dec 31 · the slate
Breakdown · STL at COL

Avalanche run the Blues off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalWed, Dec 31
STLSt. Louis Blues1COLColorado Avalanche6
The verdict · earned

The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

STL 1 · COL 6
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 10:37 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Colorado's 6-1 rout exceeded their expected goal advantage (4.08–1.33, 75% share) by 1.92 goals—a margin that reflects elite execution rather than mere possession dominance. The Avalanche held 77% of shot attempts (43–13), but the difference between an already-dominant underlying profile and a genuine blowout came down to finishing.

In the high-danger areas, Colorado's precision was exceptional: 4 goals on 8 clear-cut chances (50%). They were equally lethal in transition, scoring 4 times on 29 rush attempts—the kind of efficiency that crushes inferior opponents. Meanwhile, the Blues managed just 1 high-danger chance and 13 total shots, a workload that underscores how thoroughly Colorado controlled the game.

J. Binnington absorbed most of that offensive onslaught. Facing 43 shots, he stopped 37, posting a 0.860 SV%—1.92 goals worse than expected. Even a league-average save percentage would have compressed this final margin notably. M. Blackwood's workload was mercifully light: 13 shots, 12 saves, 0.923 SV%.

The turning point arrived with Valeri Nichushkin's wrist shot from the doorstep in the third period (16:06), but by then Colorado's suffocating control had already sealed the outcome. This was a rout built on relentless efficiency.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Dec 31
STL
1
COL
6

Avalanche run the Blues off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 1.3 – 4.1Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Avalanche earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
STL
1.33
COL
4.08
25% of the chances75%

The board read STL 1, COL 6. The chances read STL 1.3, COL 4.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
COL
+1.9
goals above expected
COL4.08 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
STL1.33 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Avalanche scored 1.9 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 01:00COLV. Nichushkin0–1
  2. P1 03:13COLN. MacKinnon0–2
  3. P1 03:26COLV. Nichushkin0–3
  4. P1 04:39COLN. MacKinnon0–4
  5. P2 09:41COLB. NelsonPP0–5
  6. P3 14:32STLD. Dvorsky1–5
  7. P3 16:06COLV. Nichushkin1–6
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
STL
21 shots
1
Final
76 shots
COL
55 shots
6
STL attackCOL attack
STL COL Goal
21
shots · 1 in
55
shots · 6 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
STLCOL
0 / 1
0.24 xG
High danger
4 / 8
1.87 xG
0 / 6
0.70 xG
Medium
2 / 12
1.31 xG
1 / 21
0.39 xG
Low
0 / 59
0.91 xG

The Avalanche buried 4 of 8 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B
M. Blackwood
+0.3
COL · 12/13
F
J. Binnington
−1.9
STL · 37/43
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Avalanche run the Blues off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 4–20
  1. 01:00COLV. Nichushkin(A. Lehkonen, B. Nelson)0–1
  2. 03:13COLN. MacKinnon(J. Manson, D. Toews)0–2
  3. 03:26COLV. Nichushkin(J. Manson, B. Burns)0–3
  4. 04:39COLN. MacKinnon(M. Necas, G. Landeskog)0–4
2ndshots 3–14
  1. 09:41COLB. Nelsonpower play(C. Makar, N. MacKinnon)0–5
3rdshots 6–9
  1. 14:32STLD. Dvorsky(M. Kessel)1–5
  2. 16:06COLV. Nichushkin(S. Malinski, N. MacKinnon)1–6

score reads STL–COL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.08
COL chances
Goals their shots were worth
+1.9
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.040
COL puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
73.8%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

1.33Expected goals4.08
COL 75% of the chance quality
13Shots on goal43
1High-danger chances8
28All attempts (Corsi)79
Adjusted for score: STL 33% · COL 67%
Faceoffs · COL won79%off40%neu38%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
STL0 / 1 · 0.24 xG
COL4 / 8 · 1.87 xG
Medium dangermid-range
STL0 / 6 · 0.70 xG
COL2 / 12 · 1.31 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
STL1 / 21 · 0.39 xG
COL0 / 59 · 0.91 xG

COL went 4-for-8 from high danger on 1.87 expected goals — 2.1 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
STL
1 G · 1.33 xG · -0.3
COL
6 G · 4.08 xG · +1.9
01234567

STL finished -0.3 against expected, COL +1.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
STL
WRIST0/3
SNAP1/12
SLAP0/1
TIP IN0/2
BACKHAND0/2
POKE0/1
OTHER0/7
COL
WRIST3/29
SNAP1/8
SLAP2/15
TIP IN0/3
BACKHAND0/0
POKE0/0
OTHER0/24
STL
COL
Off the rush
0 G on 12
0.93 xG
4 G on 29
2.64 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 2
0.10 xG
2 G on 4
0.74 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: STL went 0-for-3, COL 3-for-29. COL scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Binnington
STL · 37/43 · .860
-1.9
saved above expected
F
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger4/81.9-2.1
Medium2/121.3-0.7
Low0/590.9+0.9

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

M. Blackwood
COL · 12/13 · .923
+0.3
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/10.2+0.2
Medium0/60.7+0.7
Low1/210.4-0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

76 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
STL
21 shots
1
Final
76 shots
COL
55 shots
6
STL attackCOL attack
STL COL Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — STL left, COL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
N. MacKinnon
#29 · C · COL
2 G · 2 A · 7 SOG · 17:12 on ice · +3
V. Nichushkin
#13 · R · COL
3 G · 0 A · 6 SOG · 17:05 on ice · +3
J. Manson
#42 · D · COL
0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 17:59 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Wed, Dec 31
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 10:57 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model favors Colorado: it gives the Avalanche 59% win probability and projects them to outscore the Blues, 2.9 to 2.3. This is a lean, not a lock, but an edge grounded in underlying play.

Colorado controls the ice at 5v5. The Avalanche own 57.0% expected goals share to St. Louis's 49.0%, and the territorial advantage runs deeper: 57.0% Corsi to 48.0%. Teams that dominate shot attempts earn scoring chances at volume. This means more looks, more rebounds, more chaos in front of J. Hofer.

Form reinforces it. Colorado has gone 9-0-1 in their last 10—a sustained hot streak, not a cherry-picked sample. St. Louis, by contrast, sits at −10 goal differential over the same stretch, a sign that play and results have decoupled sharply. Regression cuts both ways, though.

Here's the caveat: Colorado's PDO is 1.021, running hot. The Avalanche have converted chances at an unsustainably high rate, and St. Louis has failed to capitalize on theirs. Expect some normalization. Colorado won't maintain this pace forever, and the Blues might shoot closer to talent. For this specific game, it narrows the edge.

Goaltending adds uncertainty. Both M. Blackwood and J. Hofer are on back-to-backs, raising the risk of a backup start or a starter running on empty. Monitor the morning skate.

The offensive matchups are sharp. For Colorado, Artturi Lehkonen leads at 1.11 xG/60 with 18 goals and 6 high-danger goals. Ross Colton (1.10 xG/60, 7 goals, 1 high-danger goal) runs nearly parallel. For St. Louis, Jimmy Snuggerud carries 0.86 xG/60 but has 15 goals at 11.9%—efficiency that masks his underlying volume. Dylan Holloway (0.82 xG/60, 13 goals, 10.8% shooting) mines low-danger chances into goals with similar skill.

The model's lean on Colorado holds up. The Avalanche own the ice-tilt, own the recent results, and own the offensive depth to finish. St. Louis has a path—suppress Colorado's volume, capitalize on their own shooting luck, steal one on a goalie performance—but enters as the team without control. The 59% projection respects Colorado's edge without overstating it.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

COL 59%
59%
COL
Model favorite
41%
59%
STL50COL

COL by 18 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score STL 2.3–2.9 COL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
STL← edge
edge →COL
49.0%57.0%
48.0%57.0%
2.343.03
2.402.30
2.002.63
2.121.56
1.0001.021

COL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.000 vs 1.021) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
STL
4-5-1
-10 GD · 1d rest
COL
9-0-1
+18 GD · 1d rest
1.000
STL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.021
COL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
  • The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
  • The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • M. Blackwood is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • J. Hofer is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Avalanche are the hotter team by points pace (9-0-1 in their last 10).
  • The Blues are underwater at -10 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
STL
Expected in goal
J. Hofer
back-to-back.909 last start
Backup Joel Hofer · +11.7 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

COL
Expected in goal
M. Blackwood
back-to-back.920 last start
Backup Scott Wedgewood · +23.1 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
STL
Jimmy Snuggerud15G 22A
0.86 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.9% sh
Dylan Holloway13G 24A
0.82 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.8% sh
COL
Artturi Lehkonen18G 22A
1.11 xG/60 · 6 HD · 14.9% sh
Ross Colton7G 15A
1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.9% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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