The Maple Leafs stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.45–2.54 and won anyway.
Toronto stole this one. The Maple Leafs won 6-5 despite controlling just 42% of expected goals — a 58-42 split in Winnipeg's favor that perfectly captures how the Jets controlled the play and lost anyway.
The underlying numbers were lopsided. The Jets took 40 shot attempts to Toronto's 30. High-danger chances went 6-2 Winnipeg. By every measure of quality, the Jets played the better hockey. The Leafs simply executed when it mattered — 6 goals from 31 rush chances, while Winnipeg managed 3 from 28.
E. Comrie absorbed the damage. Winnipeg's goalie surrendered 3.46 goals above expectation on 30 shots (0.800 SV%). Toronto's tandem was harder to beat. D. Hildeby saved 2.5 goals above expected in 23 shots (0.957 SV%), while J. Woll allowed 2.54 above expected on 17 attempts (0.765 SV%).
The turning point arrived early in the third: Auston Matthews's backhander from the doorstep at 15:38 of P3, part of a three-goal, one-assist performance that crowned him the game's best player.
M. Scheifele matched Matthews's intensity with two goals and an assist in 20:28, though it wasn't enough to overcome Toronto's finishing. O. Ekman-Larsson rounded out the three stars with a goal and an assist in 21:30, anchoring the Maple Leafs' blue line through a chaotic evening.
Toronto outperformed their xG by 3.46 goals — elite finishing or luck, most likely both. Winnipeg overperformed theirs by 1.55, which matters less when you lose by one. This was the kind of game where process and result diverge violently, and Toronto got away with it.
