The Mammoth stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.74–3.29 and won anyway.
The Islanders should have been competitive here. They didn't convert.
Expected goals had New York winning the underlying battle—the Islanders generated 3.29 to Utah's 2.74, a 55–45 split. They held 51% of shot attempts and out-manufactured high-danger chances 5–3. By every measure of process, they played the better game. The scoreboard said 7–2.
The difference was execution, both ways. K. Vejmelka stopped 1.29 goals above expected on 20 saves. D. Rittich, working the majority of the game for New York, gave up 3.17 more than expected in just 9 saves. The Islanders paid for it in bulk.
Utah's two low-danger goals were the kind of bounces goaltenders digest as part of the job, but they were also elite finishes. The Islanders' 0 of 5 on high-danger chances was the inverse—brutal variance. Vejmelka recorded a 100% save percentage on 5 high-danger attempts.
Where Utah truly dominated was the rush. They scored 7 goals on 29 rush opportunities. The Islanders managed 2 on 24. Utah's power play was equally clinical: 2 goals on 19 shots.
Nick Schmaltz's snap shot from the slot (P3, 16:55) arrived as the moment the game tipped.
