The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Senators ran the Capitals off the ice — not in the scoreline, but in everything that mattered. Ottawa won 4–3, but the underlying numbers told a much darker story for Washington: the Senators controlled 66% of 5v5 expected goals (4.50–2.36).
A one-goal game concealing a rout.
The Senators' dominance came from shot quality. They generated 0.067 expected goals per shot compared to Washington's 0.045. The high-danger chances tell the story: Ottawa created 5 to Washington's 2. That's not luck; that's control.
Goaltending proved split. L. Thompson made 28 saves on 32 shots (0.875 SV%); L. Meriläinen finished 26 saves on 29 (0.897 SV%). Neither goalie was the deciding factor. The gap was elsewhere.
Both teams struck twice off the rush, yet the Capitals' efficiency was sharper: 2 goals on 20 chances versus Ottawa's 2 on 30. Rebound chances went Washington 5, Ottawa 4, but each team scored once. Where Ottawa won the game was volume—five high-danger looks to Washington's two. That margin doesn't fit a one-goal decision, but that's what the underlying numbers say.
The turning point came early in the third: Fabian Zetterlund's snap shot from the slot at 17:38.