The Blackhawks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Chicago's 62% control of expected goals at 5v5 (4.96–3.06) vastly outpaced their one-goal winning margin. The underlying metrics suggested a wider victory.
The Blackhawks generated 0.089 expected goals per shot compared to Dallas's 0.057, transforming a shot-attempt disadvantage—they held 46% (21–25 on goal)—into a convincing quality gap. Chicago's nine high-danger chances topped Dallas's five. On the power play, Chicago's dominance showed: two goals on 11 shots (0.98 xG) while Dallas scored twice on nine shots (0.42 xG).
Chicago underperformed their xG by 0.96 goals, yet Dallas's inability to convert high-danger looks was the decisive factor. They went 0-for-5 in danger areas, a rarity. S. Knight was immaculate in net, stopping all five of Dallas's high-danger chances at 100%.
On the rush, both teams struck three goals—Chicago from 22 attempts, Dallas from 26—but Chicago's efficiency elsewhere revealed their edge. Matt Duchene's wrist shot from the slot in the third period proved the turning point, securing the margin that underlying metrics predicted.
J. Oettinger's performance was striking: a 0.810 save percentage, earning +0.96 above expected despite defending low-quality shot volume. Dallas was outshot because their chances lacked the danger of Chicago's looks. The Blackhawks' 4-3 win reflected their fundamental advantage on nearly every meaningful metric.
