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Motion-blurred skater in a Seattle Kraken sweater
← Thu, Jan 1 · the slate
Breakdown · NSH at SEA

P. Grubauer stands tall as the Kraken edge the Predators

FinalThu, Jan 1
NSHNashville Predators1SEASeattle Kraken4
The verdict · stolen

The Kraken stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.86–3.42 and won anyway.

NSH 1 · SEA 4
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 10:46 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Kraken's 4-1 win over Nashville looked decisive, but the underlying numbers say the Predators deserved much more. Seattle's expected goals edge was just 3.42–3.86, a 47–53 split that favored Nashville. The real story: P. Grubauer stole this game.

P. Grubauer finished 24/25 saves with a 0.960 save percentage, stopping 2.9 goals above expected. On high-danger chances, he was perfect—stopping all 9. Nashville created nine high-danger opportunities and converted none. That's not sustainable.

Jared McCann's wrist shot from the wing (P3, 17:47) proved the turning point, establishing Seattle's lead when the game remained close. M. Beniers then sealed it with two goals in 17:55 of ice time.

Nashville's underlying performance wasn't poor—J. Saros stopped 19/22 at a 0.864 save percentage, and the Predators dominated high-danger areas. But their efficiency collapsed. R. Josi's goal kept the game from becoming a rout, though one goal against that xG profile shows how badly Nashville squandered its chances.

The Kraken's 48% shot-attempt share masked their real advantage: goaltending dominance. Seattle's forwards did the work, but P. Grubauer defined the outcome.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Jan 1
NSH
1
SEA
4

P. Grubauer stands tall as the Kraken edge the Predators

Chances 3.9 – 3.4Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Predators deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
NSH
3.86
SEA
3.42
53% of the chances47%

The board read NSH 1, SEA 4. The chances read NSH 3.9, SEA 3.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
SEA
+0.6
goals above expected
SEA3.42 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
NSH3.86 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Predators left 2.9 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 03:48SEAM. Beniers0–1
  2. P1 10:41SEAJ. Oleksiak0–2
  3. P1 10:51SEAM. Beniers0–3
  4. P2 17:34NSHR. JosiPP1–3
  5. P3 17:47SEAJ. McCannEN1–4
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NSH
43 shots
1
Final
79 shots
SEA
36 shots
4
NSH attackSEA attack
NSH SEA Goal
43
shots · 1 in
36
shots · 4 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NSHSEA
0 / 9
1.92 xG
High danger
1 / 4
1.22 xG
1 / 11
1.32 xG
Medium
2 / 14
1.67 xG
0 / 44
0.62 xG
Low
1 / 36
0.53 xG

The Predators went 0 for 9 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
P. Grubauer
+2.9
SEA · 24/25
B
J. Saros
+0.4
NSH · 19/22
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

P. Grubauer stands tall as the Kraken edge the Predators

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–13
  1. 03:48SEAM. Beniers(R. Evans)0–1
  2. 10:41SEAJ. Oleksiak(R. Winterton, J. Melanson)0–2
  3. 10:51SEAM. Beniers(J. Eberle, K. Kakko)0–3
2ndshots 9–7
  1. 17:34NSHR. Josipower play(R. O'Reilly, L. Evangelista)1–3
3rdshots 9–3
  1. 17:47SEAJ. McCannempty net(R. Lindgren)1–4

score reads NSH–SEA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.42
SEA chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.6
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.058
SEA puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
45.8%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.86Expected goals3.42
NSH 53% of the chance quality
25Shots on goal23
9High-danger chances4
64All attempts (Corsi)54
Adjusted for score: NSH 62% · SEA 39%
Faceoffs · SEA won44%off58%neu41%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
NSH0 / 9 · 1.92 xG
SEA1 / 4 · 1.22 xG
Medium dangermid-range
NSH1 / 11 · 1.32 xG
SEA2 / 14 · 1.67 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
NSH0 / 44 · 0.62 xG
SEA1 / 36 · 0.53 xG

NSH went 0-for-9 from high danger on 1.92 expected goals — 1.9 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
NSH
1 G · 3.86 xG · -2.9
SEA
4 G · 3.42 xG · +0.6
012345

NSH finished -2.9 against expected, SEA +0.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
NSH
WRIST1/21
BACKHAND0/4
SLAP0/4
TIP IN0/6
BAT0/3
SNAP0/2
DEFLECTED0/3
POKE0/0
WRAP AROUND0/0
OTHER0/21
SEA
WRIST2/22
BACKHAND0/4
SLAP0/3
TIP IN1/1
BAT0/2
SNAP0/2
DEFLECTED0/0
POKE1/1
WRAP AROUND0/1
OTHER0/18
NSH
SEA
Off the rush
1 G on 23
1.62 xG
1 G on 20
1.40 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 11
2.09 xG
1 G on 5
0.67 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NSH went 1-for-21, SEA 2-for-22.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Saros
NSH · 19/22 · .864
+0.4
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/41.2+0.2
Medium2/141.7-0.3
Low1/360.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

P. Grubauer
SEA · 24/25 · .960
+2.9
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/91.9+1.9
Medium1/111.3+0.3
Low0/440.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

79 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
NSH
43 shots
1
Final
79 shots
SEA
36 shots
4
NSH attackSEA attack
NSH SEA Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — NSH left, SEA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
M. Beniers
#10 · C · SEA
2 G · 0 A · 2 SOG · 17:55 on ice · +3
R. Josi
#59 · D · NSH
1 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 23:48 on ice · -3
R. O'Reilly
#90 · C · NSH
0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 21:26 on ice · -1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Jan 1
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 10:45 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model gives Nashville a 2.5 projected goals and Seattle 2.5, with the Predators at exactly 50% to win. This is as close to a pick'em as exists.

Nashville's strength is territorial. The Predators control 50.0% of Corsi at 5v5—they move pucks into Seattle's zone and keep them there. But that territorial advantage hasn't converted to superior shot quality: they're at 49.0% expected goals against Seattle's underlying dominance. The Kraken's 1.011 PDO hints at unsustainable luck; Nashville's 0.992 suggests the reverse.

The goaltending setup introduces volatility. J. Annunen faces a back-to-back, raising the odds of either a backup start or depleted starter—either way, peak performance becomes uncertain.

Zachary L'Heureux is Nashville's engine. He generates 0.85 expected goals per 60 minutes at 16.0% shooting, with 4 goals and 1 high-danger goal. Filip Forsberg's output (23 goals, 17 assists, 13.6% shooting, 4 high-danger goals) sustains that firepower. Seattle answers with Shane Wright at 0.77 xG/60 (8 goals, 10 assists, 10.4% shooting, 4 high-danger goals) and Berkly Catton at 0.68 xG/60 (6 goals, 8 assists, 8.8% shooting, 5 high-danger goals—a volume forecasting either regression or breakthrough). Jonathan Marchessault represents Nashville's defensive weak link; Chandler Stephenson does the same for Seattle.

Both carry 0% high-danger goal rate and 0% rebound goal rate. That symmetry amplifies the toss-up nature. Nashville will dominate possession and zone time. But Seattle's luck has been running hot, and Wright and Catton's high-danger volume provides paths to capitalize. The model's indifference reflects the underlying mathematics.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NSH 50%
50%
NSH
Model favorite
50%
50%
NSH50SEA

NSH by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NSH 2.5–2.5 SEA; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
NSH← edge
edge →SEA
49.0%46.0%
50.0%45.0%
2.482.13
2.582.51
1.841.87
2.211.95
0.9921.011

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.992 vs 1.011) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
NSH
7-3-0
+9 GD · 1d rest
SEA
5-4-1
+0 GD · 2d rest
0.992
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.011
SEA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Predators drive Corsi at 50.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
  • The Predators drive Corsi at 50.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • J. Annunen is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
NSH
Expected in goal
J. Annunen
back-to-back.935 last start
Backup Juuse Saros · -9.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

SEA
Expected in goal
J. Daccord
2 days rest.917 last start
Backup Joey Daccord · -6.2 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
NSH
Zachary L'Heureux4G 0A
0.85 xG/60 · 1 HD · 16.0% sh
Filip Forsberg23G 17A
0.80 xG/60 · 4 HD · 13.6% sh
SEA
Shane Wright8G 10A
0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh
Berkly Catton6G 8A
0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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