The Kraken stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.70–4.63 and won anyway.
Seattle's 4-3 shootout victory was theft. The Canucks controlled 63% of expected goals (4.63 to 2.70) and lost anyway.
The dominance was comprehensive. Vancouver held 46% of shot attempts, generated six high-danger chances to Seattle's four, yet quit the ice empty. The Canucks underperformed their xG by 1.63 goals; the Kraken overperformed by 1.30. That inversion is the evening's core.
J. Daccord was the margin. The Kraken goalie stopped 21 of 24 shots and saved 1.63 goals above expected—enough to transform what the play script should have mandated. T. Demko's 0.893 SV% on 25 saves for Vancouver was steady but insufficient against teammates who couldn't finish.
Seattle's edge came from specificity on the rush. The Kraken scored twice on 22 rush attempts. Vancouver created eight rebound opportunities and converted two; Seattle had four and none. The Canucks' power play (2 PPG on 12 shots, 1.73 xG) was dominant but insufficient.
Matty Beniers's wrist shot from the doorstep settled it in the shootout. One goal, in sudden death, erased an evening of Canuck control.
