Motion-blurred skater in a gold and black sweater
Breakdown · BOS at VAN

Bruins edge the Canucks in overtime

The verdict · stolen

The Bruins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.45–4.09 and won anyway.

BOS 3 · VAN 2
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 11:31 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Canucks controlled this game on the scoresheet but not on the scoreboard. Expected goals favored Vancouver 4.09–3.45, a significant advantage that didn't translate to the result. The Bruins won 3-2 in overtime anyway.

Possession was a near-rout. The Canucks held 61% of shot attempts (34–22 on goal) and matched Boston on high-danger chances (6–6 each). They did everything right except finish—0 for 6 on their best looks. That conversion drought won't repeat; Vancouver routinely buried chances at that rate.

Swayman stole the show in net. He finished 32 for 34 (0.941 SV%), overperforming expected results by 2.09 goals. The Canucks' inability to convert hurt, but on a night when the underlying numbers said the game should be close, Swayman tipped the scales decisively in Boston's favor. Lankinen made 19 of 22 saves and faced a harder job, but the difference was clear in the crease.

Both teams showed teeth on the rush. Vancouver was lethal there: 2 goals on 33 chances. Boston matched it: 2 goals on 28 attempts. Not efficient, but effective when it mattered.

The turning point came at 04:41 of overtime—F. Minten's backhander from the doorstep. It was Minten's second goal of the night, making him the architect of Boston's win despite the underlying numbers suggesting a Canucks advantage.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Jan 3
BOS
3
VAN
2

Bruins edge the Canucks in overtime

Chances 3.5 – 4.1Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Canucks deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
BOS
3.45
VAN
4.09
46% of the chances54%

The board read BOS 3, VAN 2. The chances read BOS 3.5, VAN 4.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
BOS
−0.5
goals above expected
BOS3.45 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
VAN4.09 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Canucks left 2.1 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 16:24BOSF. MintenPP1–0
  2. P2 00:48VANE. Pettersson1–1
  3. P2 07:25BOSE. LindholmPP2–1
  4. P2 18:44VANF. HronekPP2–2
  5. OT 04:41BOSF. Minten3–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
BOS
40 shots
3
Final
92 shots
VAN
52 shots
2
BOS attackVAN attack
BOS VAN Goal
40
shots · 3 in
52
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
BOSVAN
2 / 6
1.48 xG
High danger
0 / 6
1.39 xG
1 / 11
1.25 xG
Medium
1 / 15
1.83 xG
0 / 36
0.72 xG
Low
1 / 49
0.87 xG

The Canucks went 0 for 6 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
J. Swayman
+2.1
BOS · 32/34
B
K. Lankinen
+0.5
VAN · 19/22
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Bruins edge the Canucks in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 6–6
  1. 16:24BOSF. Mintenpower play(A. Steeves, H. Lindholm)1–0
2ndshots 8–16
  1. 00:48VANE. Pettersson(F. Hronek, L. Karlsson)1–1
  2. 07:25BOSE. Lindholmpower play(D. Pastrnak, C. McAvoy)2–1
  3. 18:44VANF. Hronekpower play(Z. Buium, E. Kane)2–2
3rdshots 6–11no goals
    OTshots 2–1
    1. 04:41BOSF. Minten(D. Pastrnak, M. Lohrei)3–2

    score reads BOS–VAN

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.45
    BOS chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −0.5
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.028
    BOS puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    43.1%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    3.45Expected goals4.09
    VAN 54% of the chance quality
    22Shots on goal34
    6High-danger chances6
    53All attempts (Corsi)70
    Adjusted for score: BOS 42% · VAN 58%
    Faceoffs · VAN won48%off31%neu16%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    BOS2 / 6 · 1.48 xG
    VAN0 / 6 · 1.39 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    BOS1 / 11 · 1.25 xG
    VAN1 / 15 · 1.83 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    BOS0 / 36 · 0.72 xG
    VAN1 / 49 · 0.87 xG

    VAN went 0-for-6 from high danger on 1.39 expected goals — 1.4 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    BOS
    3 G · 3.45 xG · -0.5
    VAN
    2 G · 4.09 xG · -2.1
    012345

    BOS finished -0.5 against expected, VAN -2.1.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    BOS
    WRIST0/29
    SLAP0/2
    TIP IN1/4
    BACKHAND1/2
    SNAP1/3
    DEFLECTED0/0
    POKE0/0
    OTHER0/13
    VAN
    WRIST0/26
    SLAP0/9
    TIP IN0/6
    BACKHAND0/7
    SNAP0/0
    DEFLECTED2/3
    POKE0/1
    OTHER0/18
    BOS
    VAN
    Off the rush
    2 G on 28
    2.82 xG
    2 G on 33
    2.49 xG
    Off rebounds
    1 G on 6
    0.55 xG
    0 G on 6
    1.04 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: BOS went 0-for-29, VAN 0-for-26. BOS scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    J. Swayman
    BOS · 32/34 · .941
    +2.1
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/61.4+1.4
    Medium1/151.8+0.8
    Low1/490.9-0.1

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    K. Lankinen
    VAN · 19/22 · .864
    +0.5
    saved above expected
    B
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger2/61.5-0.5
    Medium1/111.3+0.3
    Low0/360.7+0.7

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    92 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    BOS
    40 shots
    3
    Final
    92 shots
    VAN
    52 shots
    2
    BOS attackVAN attack
    BOS VAN Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — BOS left, VAN right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    F. Hronek
    #17 · D · VAN
    1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 30:01 on ice · +1
    D. Pastrnak
    #88 · R · BOS
    0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 22:07 on ice
    F. Minten
    #93 · C · BOS
    2 G · 0 A · 6 SOG · 20:30 on ice
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sat, Jan 3
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 11:09 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model calls this one perfectly even: the Bruins at 51% win probability, both teams projected at 2.6 goals. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

    Both teams have collapsed recently. Vancouver sits -5 in goal differential over its last 10 games; Boston is worse at -9. Yet both carry modest underlying advantages at 5v5. The Bruins own a 47.0% expected goals share and 49.0% Corsi percentage, while the Canucks manage 44.0% xG% and 46.0% Corsi. The gap exists but is too narrow to settle this one.

    Luck tilts the balance. Boston's 1.023 PDO means it has run hot—converting at rates that won't last. Vancouver's 0.974 is the inverse: the Canucks are running cold and statistically due for positive regression. Both teams have leaned hard on extremes, embedding risk on both sides.

    Players to Watch

    Boston: Viktor Arvidsson anchors the attack at 1.04 expected goals per 60 minutes, with 18 goals, 24 assists, and 2 high-danger goals. His 13.0% shooting rate is well above average. Tanner Jeannot follows at 0.75 xG/60 with 6 goals and 14 assists. His 2 high-danger goals are notable given an 8.3% shooting rate, suggesting Vancouver's defense will need to limit his opportunities.

    Vancouver: Filip Chytil leads with 1.03 xG/60 but has just 3 goals and 0 assists—his chance creation far exceeds his line's finishing. He carries 1 high-danger goal. Drew O'Connor is the volume scorer: 13 goals, 11 assists, and 3 high-danger markers. At 11.8% shooting, he is a genuine threat, not a mirage.

    Boston's edge comes from sustaining Arvidsson and managing the Canucks' high-danger looks. Vancouver's path requires Chytil's volume to finally convert and O'Connor to stay efficient. Both teams have leaked chances at 5v5; the Canucks' recent cold spell makes them likelier to continue doing so.

    The model reflects the matchup's truth: evenly matched teams, each structurally sound and tactically vulnerable. Toss a coin.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    BOS 51%
    51%
    BOS
    Model favorite
    51%
    49%
    BOS50VAN

    BOS by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score BOS 2.6–2.6 VAN; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    BOS← edge
    edge →VAN
    47.0%44.0%
    49.0%46.0%
    2.392.22
    2.672.81
    2.221.60
    1.822.56
    1.0230.974

    BOS holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.023 vs 0.974) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    BOS
    3-5-2
    -9 GD · 2d rest
    VAN
    5-5-0
    -5 GD · 3d rest
    1.023
    BOS PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.974
    VAN PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Regression watch
    • The Canucks' PDO is 0.974 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    • The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Canucks are underwater at -5 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Bruins are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Canucks' PDO is 0.974 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    BOS
    Expected in goal
    J. Swayman
    2 days rest.944 last start
    Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    VAN
    Expected in goal
    T. Demko
    3 days rest.871 last start
    Backup Kevin Lankinen · -19.3 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    BOS
    Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A
    1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
    Tanner Jeannot6G 14A
    0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh
    VAN
    Filip Chytil3G 0A
    1.03 xG/60 · 1 HD · 15.0% sh
    Drew O'Connor13G 11A
    0.85 xG/60 · 3 HD · 11.8% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next