Motion-blurred skater in a San Jose Sharks sweater
Breakdown · CBJ at SJS

A. Nedeljkovic stands tall as the Sharks edge the Blue Jackets

The verdict · earned

The Sharks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

CBJ 2 · SJS 5
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 11:39 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Sharks' 5-2 victory over the Blue Jackets masked a tight underlying game. Expected goals split 5.54–5.02 in San Jose's favor, shot attempts tied 36–36, and high-danger chances nearly evened out at 11–12. The Sharks didn't dominate—they executed better and got premium goaltending when it mattered.

A. Nedeljkovic was the difference-maker in net. He stopped 34 of 36 shots for a 0.944 save percentage, saving 3.02 goals above expected. On the 12 high-danger shots he faced, he stopped 11—a 92% rate on chances where opponents typically score. J. Greaves (CBJ) matched his counterpart's excellence in defeat, posting a 0.912 save percentage and saving 2.54 goals above expected, but one goal either way shifts the margins.

The Sharks proved clinical in the attacking zone. On 11 high-danger chances, they buried 5—a 46% conversion rate that punishes defenders and goaltenders alike. The team was lethal in transition, scoring 3 goals on 33 rush attempts. San Jose's secondary scoring depth showed: A. Wennberg logged 1 goal and 2 assists across 21:14, while M. Ferraro added 1 goal and 1 assist in 19:22.

Columbus couldn't capitalize on its opportunities. The team underperformed expected goals by 3.0, missing chances in an even-strength game. I. Provorov recorded an assist in 28:17, a bright spot for the defense, but couldn't prevent the gap from widening.

Nedeljkovic's performance—not San Jose's shot volume or possession—built the three-goal margin. High-danger chance rates suggested a tighter finish. The actual score told a story of goaltending excellence and Sharks' efficiency.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Jan 6
CBJ
2
SJS
5

A. Nedeljkovic stands tall as the Sharks edge the Blue Jackets

Chances 5.0 – 5.5Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Sharks earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
CBJ
5.02
SJS
5.54
48% of the chances52%

The board read CBJ 2, SJS 5. The chances read CBJ 5.0, SJS 5.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
SJS
−0.5
goals above expected
SJS5.54 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
CBJ5.02 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Blue Jackets left 3.0 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 19:11SJSP. Regenda0–1
  2. P2 04:14SJSA. WennbergPP0–2
  3. P2 19:15CBJZ. Werenski1–2
  4. P3 15:16SJSZ. Ostapchuk1–3
  5. P3 16:05CBJS. Monahan2–3
  6. P3 17:46SJSM. FerraroEN2–4
  7. P3 18:31SJSM. CelebriniEN2–5
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CBJ
48 shots
2
Final
94 shots
SJS
46 shots
5
CBJ attackSJS attack
CBJ SJS Goal
48
shots · 2 in
46
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CBJSJS
1 / 12
2.66 xG
High danger
5 / 11
2.95 xG
1 / 18
1.92 xG
Medium
0 / 20
2.09 xG
0 / 35
0.44 xG
Low
0 / 34
0.49 xG

The Sharks buried 5 of 11 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
A. Nedeljkovic
+3.0
SJS · 34/36
A+
J. Greaves
+2.5
CBJ · 31/34
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

A. Nedeljkovic stands tall as the Sharks edge the Blue Jackets

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 12–10
  1. 19:11SJSP. Regenda(A. Wennberg, T. Toffoli)0–1
2ndshots 6–17
  1. 04:14SJSA. Wennbergpower play(W. Eklund, D. Orlov)0–2
  2. 19:15CBJZ. Werenski(D. Voronkov, K. Marchenko)1–2
3rdshots 18–9
  1. 15:16SJSZ. Ostapchuk1–3
  2. 16:05CBJS. Monahan(I. Provorov)2–3
  3. 17:46SJSM. Ferraroempty net(A. Wennberg)2–4
  4. 18:31SJSM. Celebriniempty net(C. Graf, M. Ferraro)2–5

score reads CBJ–SJS

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
5.54
SJS chances
Goals their shots were worth
−0.5
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
1.046
SJS puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
50.0%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

5.02Expected goals5.54
SJS 52% of the chance quality
36Shots on goal36
12High-danger chances11
65All attempts (Corsi)65
Adjusted for score: CBJ 54% · SJS 46%
Faceoffs · SJS won36%off47%neu44%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
CBJ1 / 12 · 2.66 xG
SJS5 / 11 · 2.95 xG
Medium dangermid-range
CBJ1 / 18 · 1.92 xG
SJS0 / 20 · 2.09 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
CBJ0 / 35 · 0.44 xG
SJS0 / 34 · 0.49 xG

SJS went 0-for-20 from medium danger on 2.09 expected goals — 2.1 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
CBJ
2 G · 5.02 xG · -3.0
SJS
5 G · 5.54 xG · -0.5
0123456

CBJ finished -3.0 against expected, SJS -0.5.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
CBJ
WRIST2/33
TIP IN0/8
SLAP0/4
BACKHAND0/3
SNAP0/0
POKE0/0
OTHER0/17
SJS
WRIST3/23
TIP IN0/7
SLAP0/6
BACKHAND2/5
SNAP0/4
POKE0/1
OTHER0/19
CBJ
SJS
Off the rush
1 G on 26
2.96 xG
3 G on 33
3.60 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 7
1.31 xG
0 G on 3
0.53 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: CBJ went 2-for-33, SJS 3-for-23. SJS scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Greaves
CBJ · 31/34 · .912
+2.5
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger5/113.0-2.0
Medium0/202.1+2.1
Low0/340.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

A. Nedeljkovic
SJS · 34/36 · .944
+3.0
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/122.7+1.7
Medium1/181.9+0.9
Low0/350.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

94 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
CBJ
48 shots
2
Final
94 shots
SJS
46 shots
5
CBJ attackSJS attack
CBJ SJS Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — CBJ left, SJS right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
A. Wennberg
#21 · C · SJS
1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 21:14 on ice · +1
M. Ferraro
#38 · D · SJS
1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 19:22 on ice · +1
I. Provorov
#9 · D · CBJ
0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 28:17 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Jan 6
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 11:37 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.6-2.5 game with Columbus at 52% win probability—as close to a pick'em as it gets.

Columbus controls the underlying play. The Blue Jackets generate 52.0% of 5v5 expected goals and drive Corsi at 51.0%, indicating sustained territorial dominance throughout the season. This isn't noise; it's consistency.

Yet that possession masks a curious inefficiency. Columbus scores 0% of its goals from high-danger looks and 0% from rebounds. The Blue Jackets generate offensive volume but stumble when it matters most. San Jose's Igor Chernyshov thrives against such gaps: he produces 0.91 xG/60 while shooting 15.0%, an efficiency advantage that becomes lethal against teams that also sit at 0% HD goals and 0% rebound goals.

Boone Jenner drives Columbus's offense. He has 11 goals and 21 assists with a 0.98 xG/60—solid volume from dangerous spots—though just 2 high-danger goals suggest he's generating assists more than scoring from prime real estate. Mathieu Olivier is the secondary threat at 0.89 xG/60, with 12 goals reflecting a hot 13.3% shooting rate; his goal total exceeds underlying metrics. San Jose would counter with Pavol Regenda, who appears likely unavailable. That's the Sharks' biggest loss: Regenda generated 1.10 xG/60 with 16.1% shooting and 2 high-danger goals—their most efficient scorer.

Without Regenda, Igor Chernyshov must carry increased offensive burden while remaining defensively exposed. For Columbus, Conor Garland's defensive limitations create a pressure point—expect San Jose to target that matchup relentlessly. Chernyshov doubles as San Jose's weak link; the Sharks are depending on a player who must produce while vulnerable.

The 52% projection reflects genuine uncertainty, not dominance. Columbus owns play time and shot metrics but can't finish from high-danger areas. San Jose plays less but converts more efficiently. The absence of Regenda improves the Sharks' outlook considerably; they no longer face his 1.10 xG/60 edge. This is a true coin flip: Columbus's path requires outscoring its underlying numbers; San Jose's requires converting its chances. Confirm Regenda's status before kickoff, but expect a game decided by which team's inefficiency hurts least.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

CBJ 52%
52%
CBJ
Model favorite
52%
48%
CBJ50SJS

CBJ by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score CBJ 2.6–2.5 SJS; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
CBJ← edge
edge →SJS
52.0%48.0%
51.0%47.0%
2.632.33
2.432.56
2.121.99
1.982.32
1.0030.998

CBJ holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.003 vs 0.998) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CBJ
5-4-1
+5 GD · 2d rest
SJS
6-4-0
-3 GD · 3d rest
1.003
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.998
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
  • The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
  • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
  • The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
CBJ
Expected in goal
J. Greaves
2 days rest.884 last start
Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

SJS
Expected in goal
A. Nedeljkovic
3 days rest.750 last start
Backup Yaroslav Askarov · -18.9 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
CBJ
Boone Jenner11G 21A
0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
SJS
Pavol Regenda5G 1A
1.10 xG/60 · 2 HD · 16.1% sh
Igor Chernyshov6G 8A
0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 15.0% sh
Keep going

Where to next