The Capitals stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.23–3.78 and won anyway.
Chicago dominated the underlying play and lost 5-1 anyway. The Blackhawks held 63% of expected goals (3.78–2.23) on even shot volume (24–24), owning nearly every meaningful metric—and walking away with nothing. Washington stole this one through efficiency and goaltending.
The Capitals' power was surgical. They overperformed their 2.23 xG by 2.77 goals, converting at rates the shot quality didn't predict. On just 21 rush chances, Washington scored 4 goals. That's lethality compressed into a few precise looks.
Chicago's collapse was mirror-image. The Blackhawks generated more dangerous chances at 0.076 xG per shot (versus Washington's 0.052) and led 8–3 in high-danger attempts. They converted zero of those eight. D. Commesso added to the toll: he gave up 2.77 goals above expected, a gap that magnified every mistake into a scoreboard entry.
L. Thompson was the story. The Washington goalie stopped 23 of 24 shots for a 0.958 save percentage, saving 2.78 goals above expected and posting a perfect record on Chicago's eight high-danger chances. This was goaltending that transformed play quality into a rout.
Alex Ovechkin's snap shot from the high slot (P3, 13:33) was the turning point. Once Washington found their rhythm on the rush, the Blackhawks couldn't recover. Chicago generated 5 rebound opportunities but converted none, a pattern of offensive pressure meeting an immovable object.
The Three Stars belonged to Washington: J. Carlson (2A, 19:43), M. Fehérváry (2A, 17:59), and C. McMichael (1G, 1A, 14:49). This was the difference between dominating the play and dominating the scoresheet.
