The Blue Jackets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Columbus dominated Utah on the underlying metrics — 66% of 5v5 expected goals (4.55–2.37) and a 7–2 high-danger-chance edge — yet the 3–2 overtime result masks the thoroughness of the Blue Jackets' control. V. Vanecek's exceptional goaltending kept the Mammoth in a game the metrics suggested Columbus should have won decisively.
Vanecek saved 1.55 goals above expected, essentially stealing one. That differential — one goal beyond an average performance — explains why Columbus's dominance didn't translate to a larger margin. The Blue Jackets generated higher-quality chances throughout, averaging 0.062 expected goals per shot versus Utah's 0.036, and attacked the crease relentlessly. They crashed for 6 rebound opportunities, converting one; they were lethal on the rush, scoring 2 of 33 chances; their power play converted 2 on 13 shots for 1.87 expected goals.
Yet Columbus still underperformed their expected goals by 1.55. They had the looks; finishing faltered. J. Greaves steadied the Blue Jackets in net with a 0.926 save percentage on 25 of 27 stops — solid, if not spectacular.
Dmitri Voronkov's overtime tip-in at 01:01 broke the deadlock, arriving from the high-danger areas Columbus had dominated all evening.