Motion-blurred skater in a Seattle Kraken sweater

Breakdown · SEA at NYR

Kraken hold off the Rangers

FinalMon, Jan 12

The verdict · earned

The Kraken earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

SEA 4 · NYR 2

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 12:27 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Kraken beat the Rangers 4-2, and the underlying indicators justified every goal. Seattle's shots were significantly more threatening—0.085 expected goals per attempt versus New York's 0.045—nearly doubling the danger per look. Over the full game, this translated to 5v5 expected goals of 3.66–2.61, a spread that predicted exactly this outcome.

Seattle's edge came from clinical finishing in high-leverage situations. The Kraken put away 3 of 6 high-danger chances (50%), while the Rangers generated only 4 such looks. Seattle also created 3 rebound opportunities and converted 1, evidence of a team willing to win second chances. The Rangers held 43% of shot attempts but never matched Seattle's execution.

Jared McCann's wrist shot from the wing in the third period marked the turning point. P. Grubauer (SEA) made 20 saves on 22 shots (+0.61 vs. expected), while J. Quick (NYR) stopped 25 of 28 (+0.66)—both goalies performed well, but neither decided the game. The Kraken won this one through superior play at even strength.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Jan 12

SEA

NYR

Kraken hold off the Rangers

Chances 3.7 – 2.6Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Kraken earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

SEA

3.66

NYR

2.61

58% of the chances42%

The board read SEA 4, NYR 2. The chances read SEA 3.7, NYR 2.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

SEA

+0.3

goals above expected

SEA3.66 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

NYR2.61 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 03:08NYRM. Zibanejad0–1
P1 05:31NYRS. Carrick0–2
P2 01:00SEAE. Tolvanen1–2
P2 04:27SEAJ. Eberle2–2
P3 12:02SEAB. Catton3–2
P3 19:50SEAJ. McCannEN4–2

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

SEA

40 shots

Final

78 shots

NYR

38 shots

SEA NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

SEANYR

3 / 6

1.77 xG

High danger

1 / 4

0.88 xG

1 / 11

1.31 xG

Medium

1 / 11

1.13 xG

0 / 26

0.57 xG

Low

0 / 43

0.60 xG

The Kraken buried 3 of 6 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Quick

+0.7

NYR · 25/28

P. Grubauer

+0.6

SEA · 20/22

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Kraken hold off the Rangers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 9–11

03:08NYRM. Zibanejad(A. Panarin, C. Soucy)0–1
05:31NYRS. Carrick0–2

2ndshots 9–4

01:00SEAE. Tolvanen(F. Gaudreau)1–2
04:27SEAJ. Eberle(K. Kakko, M. Beniers)2–2

3rdshots 11–7

12:02SEAB. Catton(S. Wright, R. Lindgren)3–2
19:50SEAJ. McCannempty net4–2

score reads SEA–NYR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.66

SEA chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.3

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.058

SEA puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

42.6%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.66Expected goals2.61

SEA 58% of the chance quality

29Shots on goal22

6High-danger chances4

43All attempts (Corsi)58

Adjusted for score: SEA 44% · NYR 56%

Faceoffs · NYR won57%off50%neu50%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

SEA3 / 6 · 1.77 xG

NYR1 / 4 · 0.88 xG

Medium dangermid-range

SEA1 / 11 · 1.31 xG

NYR1 / 11 · 1.13 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

SEA0 / 26 · 0.57 xG

NYR0 / 43 · 0.60 xG

SEA went 3-for-6 from high danger on 1.77 expected goals — 1.2 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

SEA

4 G · 3.66 xG · +0.3

NYR

2 G · 2.61 xG · -0.6

012345

SEA finished +0.3 against expected, NYR -0.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

SEA

WRIST3/24

SNAP1/11

SLAP0/3

TIP IN0/1

DEFLECTED0/1

BACKHAND0/0

OTHER0/3

NYR

WRIST2/18

SNAP0/9

SLAP0/3

TIP IN0/4

DEFLECTED0/2

BACKHAND0/2

OTHER0/20

SEA

NYR

Off the rush

1 G on 23

2.01 xG

1 G on 25

1.91 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 3

0.86 xG

0 G on 1

0.14 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: SEA went 3-for-24, NYR 2-for-18.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

P. Grubauer

SEA · 20/22 · .909

+0.6

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/40.9-0.1

Medium1/111.1+0.1

Low0/430.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Quick

NYR · 25/28 · .893

+0.7

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger3/61.8-1.2

Medium1/111.3+0.3

Low0/260.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

78 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

SEA

40 shots

Final

78 shots

NYR

38 shots

SEA NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — SEA left, NYR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

R. Lindgren

#55 · D · SEA

0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 22:12 on ice · +2

A. Panarin

#10 · L · NYR

0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 21:17 on ice · -2

M. Beniers

#10 · C · SEA

0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 20:14 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Jan 12

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 12:26 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The models say this is nearly a pick'em. Vegas projects Seattle at 2.3–2.5 goals against New York's expected output, with the Rangers at 54% win probability. That margin is narrow enough that either team winning tells you almost nothing about which is better.

Seattle is the hotter team by points pace, riding 7-1-2 over their last 10. New York is underwater at -10 goal differential in the same span. But form can mask underlying strength, and the underlying numbers here are tangled.

The Rangers drive territorial advantage at 49.0% Corsi, which predicts shot volume to follow. Seattle counters at 46.0% xG, still respectable enough to stay competitive. The tension is New York's 48.0% xG paired with their Corsi dominance—they control possession without necessarily creating the best chances. Seattle's 1.011 PDO versus New York's 1.009 suggests neither is riding unsustainable luck.

The J. Daccord variable matters. He's on a back-to-back, and depending on Seattle's goalie choice, this shifts leverage. A tired starter plays different from a fresh backup.

The edges live in the players. Shane Wright carries 0.77 xG per 60 minutes and has banked 8 goals and 10 assists with 4 high-danger goals at a 10.4% shooting rate—he's both creating and converting at a sustainable clip. Berkly Catton (0.68 xG/60, 6G 8A, 5 HD goals, 8.8% shooting) is steadier in volume but equally dangerous. Adam Sykora (0.91 xG/60, 3G 1A, 20.0% shooting) represents the opposite extreme: small sample, enormous rate, pure upside. Gabe Perreault (0.79 xG/60, 8G 11A, 2 HD goals, 13.1% shooting) strikes a balance and can elevate fast.

New York's defensive weak link is Vincent Iorio. Seattle's is Chandler Stephenson. Both become liabilities in tight, territorial hockey.

Neither team has generated a meaningful high-danger or rebound goal rate this season, which narrows the margin for error. That favors whichever goaltender is sharpest tonight.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NYR 54%

54%

NYR

Model favorite

46%

54%

SEA50NYR

NYR by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score SEA 2.3–2.5 NYR; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

SEA← edge

edge →NYR

46.0%48.0%

45.0%49.0%

2.132.26

2.512.40

1.871.88

1.951.90

1.0111.009

NYR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.011 vs 1.009) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

SEA

7-1-2

+14 GD · 1d rest

NYR

3-5-2

-10 GD · 2d rest

1.011

SEA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Rangers drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Things to watch

The Rangers drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.
J. Daccord is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Kraken are the hotter team by points pace (7-1-2 in their last 10).
The Rangers are underwater at -10 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

SEA

Expected in goal

J. Daccord

back-to-back.917 last start

Backup Joey Daccord · -6.2 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYR

Expected in goal

J. Quick

2 days rest.700 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

SEA

Shane Wright8G 10A

0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh

Berkly Catton6G 8A

0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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