The Oilers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
C. Ingram (EDM) stole the show: a 0.967 save percentage and 2.93 goals saved above expected. The Oilers won 4-1, but that scoreline masks what nearly happened. The Blackhawks generated 3.93 expected goals while converting just one—leaving 2.93 goals unrealized.
The Oilers controlled 5v5 play at 58% expected goals (5.44 to 3.93). Their 37-30 shot-attempt advantage was substantial, but the gap that mattered was quality: 0.086 xG per shot versus Chicago's 0.062. That differential compounds across a full game.
The Blackhawks generated genuine chances. They had six high-danger opportunities (combined 16 between the teams), but couldn't finish: 0-for-6 on those looks. That conversion rate won't happen often. S. Knight (CHI) played well with a 0.917 save percentage—2.44 goals better than expected—but faced lower-quality volume overall.
Leon Draisaitl's wrist shot from the doorstep (P3, 19:15) proved the turning point. The Oilers spread scoring across the lineup: E. Bouchard (2G, 1A in 24:31), Z. Hyman (1G, 1A in 19:28), and C. McDavid (2A in 21:18). The Blackhawks created four rebound opportunities and converted one; the Oilers created four and converted zero. None of it mattered once Ingram locked in—100% save percentage on six high-danger shots. That performance sealed the gap.
