The Maple Leafs stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.97–3.74 and won anyway.
Colorado dominated the underlying metrics and still lost. The Avalanche controlled 56% of expected goals (3.74–2.97), a gap that should have settled the game — instead, Toronto won it in overtime when William Nylander scored at 03:59.
The Avalanche were lethal in transition, scoring three goals on exactly 31 rush chances. Toronto matched that output on identical volume, scoring four. This is variance made visible: Colorado undershooting its model by 0.74 goals while Toronto overshot by 1.03.
The goaltenders decided it. T. Miner stopped 28 of 31 shots (0.903 SV%), respectable but beneath expectation — premium chances landed and went unanswered. J. Woll posted a 0.912 SV% (31 of 34), outperforming expectation by 0.74 goals. That gap was the game.
High-danger chances finished 3–3, so both teams created equal Grade-A looks. Colorado executed in transition during regulation but couldn't finish when overtime arrived. Toronto got two goals from low-danger areas — exactly the kind of variance that doesn't repeat.
N. MacKinnon (COL) led with three assists in 24:40. C. Makar (COL) added a goal and assist in 27:22. A. Matthews (TOR) capped it with a goal and assist in 25:29.
