The Bruins earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Detroit underperformed their expected goals by 3.52 — a complete mismatch between their chances and result. They were 0 for 5 on high-danger attempts, transforming what looks like a Bruins blowout into a story of Detroit's wasted scoring opportunities.
Boston controlled 56% of 5v5 expected goals (4.50 to 3.52) and 63% of shot attempts, but Detroit wasn't passive. The Red Wings created 8 high-danger chances to Boston's 5 and produced 5 rebound opportunities. They just couldn't finish. When you're 0/5 on prime looks, the scoreboard doesn't tell the real story.
The Bruins weren't flawless either. They underperformed their xG by 1.50 goals, but were lethal in transition, converting 3 goals on 31 rush opportunities. That efficiency at moments of consequence is what separated a 3-0 win from a tighter game.
J. Swayman stopped all 24 shots he faced, exceeding expected performance by 3.52. C. Talbot posted a 0.950 save percentage and exceeded expected performance by 2.50 goals — solid work that couldn't overcome Detroit's misfires.
Mark Kastelic's backhander from the high slot at 16:01 of the third was the turning point, a clinical finish on a setup that captured Boston's pounce-and-convert style. By then, Detroit's chance conversion drought had already decided the outcome.
The 3-0 scoreline reads like a rout. The underlying numbers tell a closer story: Boston won through better execution in transition, while Detroit failed to convert the quality looks they earned.
