The Blue Jackets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Flames had more high-danger chances and still lost 5-3 — a classic goaltending story masking a deeper control loss. Underlying metrics showed a closer game than the scoreboard suggests, but CBJ's superior shot management and J. Greaves' dominance made the difference.
The Blue Jackets controlled the game on volume. They held 57% of shot attempts (43–32 on goal), though expected goals split narrowly: 5.97–5.15 in their favor, a 54–46 edge. The Flames generated 12 high-danger chances to CBJ's 9, yet were outscored 5-3 — a gap explained almost entirely by goaltending.
J. Greaves saved 2.15 goals above expected on 29 saves, posting a 0.906 SV%. He was exceptional on high-danger looks: 92% save rate on 12 shots from prime scoring areas. D. Wolf stopped 1.97 goals above expected for Calgary but faced fewer premium chances and couldn't overcome CBJ's rush attack.
The Blue Jackets were ruthless in transition, scoring 4 goals on 36 rush chances. They also scored twice from low-danger areas, opportunities Wolf should have had. The Flames underperformed their 5.15 xG by 2.15 goals, wasting their high-danger chances. CBJ underperformed slightly too (by 0.97), but their volume advantage and superior goaltending absorbed it.
C. Coyle's wrist shot from the slot in the third period (19:57) was the turning point.
