The Capitals earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Washington won 3-2 in overtime, but controlled the game so thoroughly that the margin should have been much wider. The Capitals generated 70% of 5v5 expected goals (6.16–2.66) and 63% of shot attempts, yet nearly failed to win because they underperformed their chances by 3.16 goals while Montembeault played excellently for Montreal.
The gap in game quality was stark. Washington averaged 0.081 expected goals per shot; Montreal managed 0.051. The Capitals also dominated high-danger chances 11–2 and created twice as many rebound opportunities (7–3). Off the rush, both teams scored 2 goals, but Washington needed 33 chances to find theirs, while Montreal converted 2 on just 22 attempts.
Montembeault's night was the story the scoresheet doesn't capture. He finished with 39 saves on 42 shots (0.929 SV%) and stopped 3.16 goals above expected—an exceptional performance that kept Montreal improbably competitive. L. Thompson for Washington was solid (23/25, +0.66), but strong goaltending couldn't offset his team's inefficiency with their volume.
Montreal scored twice from low-danger locations, the kind of spots an opposing goalie should stop. Washington responded with the overtime winner when Connor McMichael finished from the doorstep at 04:21 of overtime.
The Capitals' execution lacuna is notable: they had the game under control and still needed overtime. Better shot selection and more efficient finishing, and they end this in regulation with a commanding win. Washington's offensive inconsistency against one of the league's weaker teams offered Montreal a narrow escape.