The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Ottawa outscored New York by four goals, but their net advantage was even more lopsided: both teams dramatically outperformed their expected goals, with the Senators' overperformance nearly triple the Rangers'. The Senators overperformed their xG by 4.49 goals; the Rangers by just 1.62.
The underlying dominance supported the 8–4 result. Ottawa controlled 60% of expected goals (3.51–2.38 in their favor) while out-attempting New York 30–22 on shot attempts. The high-danger zone told a similar story: Ottawa generated five chances, New York four. Both teams found the net from everywhere else—Ottawa scored five low-danger goals, while New York's efficiency on the rush (four goals on seventeen chances) kept the margin from widening further.
The goaltending collapse accelerated the divergence. L. Meriläinen (Ottawa) saved 18 of 22 shots (0.818 SV%), allowing 1.62 more goals than expected. J. Quick (New York) was worse, surrendering 11 of 17 (0.647 SV%), 3.94 goals worse than projected.
Tim Stützle's wrist shot from the high slot in the third period proved the pivot point, though the Senators had already built substantial momentum.
Ottawa's three-star performers reflected the balanced attack:
- B. Tkachuk — 1G, 3A
- R. Greig — 3A
- D. Cozens — 1G, 2A
The scoreline alone looked one-sided. The variance underneath—elite finishing from the Senators, routine misses from the Rangers—revealed how much luck broke Ottawa's way.