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← Wed, Jan 14 · the slate
Breakdown · VGK at LAK

Golden Knights edge the Kings in overtime

Final / OTWed, Jan 14
VGKVegas Golden Knights3LAKLos Angeles Kings2
The verdict · stolen

The Golden Knights stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.71–3.62 and won anyway.

VGK 3 · LAK 2
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 12:44 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Vegas stole this one. Los Angeles commanded expected goals 57–43, piling up 3.62 xG to Vegas's 2.71, controlled high-danger chances 7–4, yet lost 3–2 in overtime. The Kings did everything except finish.

The heist was A. Schmid. Vegas's goaltender posted a 0.917 save percentage and stopped 1.62 goals above expected—the difference between a Kings win and a Knights escape. D. Kuemper was solid for LA (0.889 SV%, 24/27 saves), but his team couldn't capitalize on dominance.

Vegas won the game on rush defense. The Knights converted three goals from 22 rush chances—a lethal rate that punished every LA breakout. Mark Stone's wrist shot from the slot at 00:25 of overtime ended it, a goal that had no right to win the game given the context.

LA generated 10 rebound opportunities and converted two; Vegas created three and converted zero. Yet the Kings underperformed their xG by 1.6 goals. They had the looks, but not the finish.

J. Eichel led with three assists in 19:01 for Vegas. K. Fiala (1G, 1A in 22:25) and M. Stone (1G, 1A in 19:58) paced the offense. Neither LA's shot volume nor their quality-chance edge mattered—one goaltender's performance and one rush collapse decided it.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Jan 14
VGK
3
LAK
2

Golden Knights edge the Kings in overtime

Chances 2.7 – 3.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Kings deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
VGK
2.71
LAK
3.62
43% of the chances57%

The board read VGK 3, LAK 2. The chances read VGK 2.7, LAK 3.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
VGK
+0.3
goals above expected
VGK2.71 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
LAK3.62 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Kings left 1.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 03:56VGKB. Bowman1–0
  2. P3 06:24LAKK. Fiala1–1
  3. P3 12:07VGKM. MarnerPP2–1
  4. P3 18:33LAKB. ClarkePP2–2
  5. OT 00:25VGKM. Stone3–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
VGK
30 shots
3
Final
70 shots
LAK
40 shots
2
VGK attackLAK attack
VGK LAK Goal
30
shots · 3 in
40
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
VGKLAK
1 / 4
1.06 xG
High danger
2 / 7
1.59 xG
2 / 10
1.16 xG
Medium
0 / 14
1.57 xG
0 / 29
0.49 xG
Low
0 / 40
0.45 xG

High-danger looks: VGK 1 of 4, LAK 2 of 7.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
A. Schmid
+1.6
VGK · 22/24
D
D. Kuemper
−0.3
LAK · 24/27
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Golden Knights edge the Kings in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 5–9no goals
    2ndshots 14–8
    1. 03:56VGKB. Bowman(J. Eichel, S. Theodore)1–0
    3rdshots 7–7
    1. 06:24LAKK. Fiala(A. Turcotte, A. Kuzmenko)1–1
    2. 12:07VGKM. Marnerpower play(M. Stone, J. Eichel)2–1
    3. 18:33LAKB. Clarkepower play(A. Kempe, K. Fiala)2–2
    OTshots 1–0
    1. 00:25VGKM. Stone(J. Eichel)3–2

    score reads VGK–LAK

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    2.71
    VGK chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +0.3
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.037
    VGK puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    41.3%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.71Expected goals3.62
    LAK 57% of the chance quality
    27Shots on goal24
    4High-danger chances7
    43All attempts (Corsi)61
    Adjusted for score: VGK 39% · LAK 61%
    Faceoffs · LAK won44%off71%neu50%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    VGK1 / 4 · 1.06 xG
    LAK2 / 7 · 1.59 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    VGK2 / 10 · 1.16 xG
    LAK0 / 14 · 1.57 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    VGK0 / 29 · 0.49 xG
    LAK0 / 40 · 0.45 xG

    LAK went 0-for-14 from medium danger on 1.57 expected goals — 1.6 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    VGK
    3 G · 2.71 xG · +0.3
    LAK
    2 G · 3.62 xG · -1.6
    01234

    VGK finished +0.3 against expected, LAK -1.6.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    VGK
    WRIST3/20
    SLAP0/3
    SNAP0/1
    BACKHAND0/4
    TIP IN0/1
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    POKE0/0
    OTHER0/13
    LAK
    WRIST1/22
    SLAP0/5
    SNAP1/7
    BACKHAND0/2
    TIP IN0/3
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    POKE0/1
    OTHER0/21
    VGK
    LAK
    Off the rush
    3 G on 22
    2.24 xG
    0 G on 21
    2.01 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 3
    0.37 xG
    2 G on 10
    1.40 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: VGK went 3-for-20, LAK 1-for-22. VGK scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    A. Schmid
    VGK · 22/24 · .917
    +1.6
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger2/71.6-0.4
    Medium0/141.6+1.6
    Low0/400.5+0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    D. Kuemper
    LAK · 24/27 · .889
    -0.3
    saved above expected
    D
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/41.1+0.1
    Medium2/101.2-0.8
    Low0/290.5+0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    70 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    VGK
    30 shots
    3
    Final
    70 shots
    LAK
    40 shots
    2
    VGK attackLAK attack
    VGK LAK Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, LAK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    J. Eichel
    #9 · C · VGK
    0 G · 3 A · 4 SOG · 19:01 on ice · +1
    K. Fiala
    #22 · L · LAK
    1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 22:25 on ice · +1
    M. Stone
    #61 · R · VGK
    1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 19:58 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Wed, Jan 14
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 12:42 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a 2.4–2.4 tie with the Kings at 50% win probability—about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The teams are evenly matched at 5v5: Vegas holds a 54.0% expected-goal share to Los Angeles's 52.0%, but both clubs post identical 52.0% Corsi ratings. The underlying shot dynamics don't break the tie.

    Vegas is due for positive regression. The Golden Knights' PDO sits at 0.983—running cold—while Los Angeles has run hot at 1.002. PDO gaps typically converge.

    D. Kuemper starts on the second leg of a back-to-back. Watch for a backup start or a tired starter.

    Key Performers

    Tomas Hertl anchors Vegas's forward group: 0.88 expected goals per 60 minutes, 5 goals, 17 assists, 1 high-danger goal, and a 4.3% shooting rate. Brandon Saad carries higher shot volume (0.91 xG/60, 3 goals, 6 assists, 1 high-danger goal) and a 4.1% shooting rate, though he's marked inactive.

    Los Angeles counters with Alex Laferriere, quietly one of the league's most prolific finishers: 0.87 xG/60, 16 goals, 18 assists, 2 high-danger goals, and 9.9% shooting. Jared Wright (0.83 xG/60) has recorded 4 assists despite remaining scoreless.

    Defensive Vulnerabilities

    Rasmus Andersson represents Vegas's defensive weak link. Adrian Kempe fills the same role for Los Angeles. Neither team has generated high-danger or rebound goals at a meaningful rate—0% across both categories—suggesting neither squad is capitalizing on grinding offensive sequences.

    The tightness in underlying metrics reflects genuine competitive balance. Vegas's 54.0% expected-goal edge is marginal and within noise. Los Angeles's efficiency cannot sustain. In a 50-50 game, marginal advantages—lineup decisions, goaltender availability, and variance—become decisive.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    LAK 50%
    50%
    LAK
    Model favorite
    50%
    50%
    VGK50LAK

    LAK by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score VGK 2.4–2.4 LAK; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK← edge
    edge →LAK
    54.0%52.0%
    52.0%52.0%
    2.522.42
    2.112.20
    2.121.85
    2.101.71
    0.9831.002

    VGK holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 1.002) says LAK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    VGK
    5-3-2
    +7 GD · 2d rest
    LAK
    4-5-1
    -4 GD · 1d rest
    0.983
    VGK PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.002
    LAK PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Regression watch
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Things to watch
    • D. Kuemper is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    VGK
    Expected in goal
    C. Lindbom
    2 days rest.900 last start
    Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    LAK
    Expected in goal
    D. Kuemper
    back-to-back.882 last start
    Backup Darcy Kuemper · -5.8 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK
    Brandon Saad3G 6A
    0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
    Tomas Hertl5G 17A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
    LAK
    Alex Laferriere16G 18A
    0.87 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.9% sh
    Jared Wright0G 4A
    0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 0.0% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page