The Sabres won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The Canadiens dominated the dangerous areas—six high-danger chances to Buffalo's two—but lost 5–3. The underlying metrics called the game close to even: expected goals finished 2.99–3.23, a slight Montreal edge. The Sabres' conversion rate turned that into a decisive win.
Buffalo's finishing was elite. The Sabres overperformed their expected goals by 2.01 while generating just 0.053 expected goals per shot compared to Montreal's 0.075—lower volume, higher conversion. Montreal crashed the net for four rebound chances (converting two) and generated superior looks, but the Sabres struck with lethal efficiency on the rush, scoring five goals from twenty-six rush chances.
Goaltending diverged sharply. J. Fowler (MTL) surrendered 1.0 goals more than expected on his workload—a weak performance. C. Ellis (BUF) posted a 0.870 save percentage and controlled the game when it mattered.
Special teams tilted toward Buffalo. The Sabres power play converted twice on ten shots (0.56 xG). Montreal matched the goal total—2 PPG on 6 PP shots (0.63 xG)—but trailed and couldn't recover. The turning point came on a Tage Thompson wrist shot from the high slot at 18:20 of the third, cementing Buffalo's control.
Buffalo outshot Montreal 27–23 on goal (54 percent of attempts) but that doesn't explain the margin. The Canadiens created the better chances; the Sabres finished theirs.