The Jets stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.22–3.78 and won anyway.
Winnipeg's 6-2 victory belies how close the underlying play was: expected goals nearly split even at 3.78-3.22, with Minnesota actually edging the Jets in shot attempts (54% of attempts, 34-29 on goal). This was a game the scoreboard won decisively but the data insists should have been tight.
The gap came down to goaltending. C. Hellebuyck stopped shots 1.78 goals above expected (0.941 SV% on 32 saves), while J. Wallstedt imploded below expectation by 3.78 goals despite light volume (0.700 SV% on 14 saves). Winnipeg's clinical execution in high-danger areas—converting 3 of 6 chances (50%)—meant every mistake Wallstedt made had scoreboard weight.
The Jets' precision extended beyond the crease. They scored twice from low-danger situations and found two goals off the rush on 22 chances. Minnesota created three rebound opportunities but converted none, while Winnipeg created six and buried three. The Wild underperformed by 1.8 goals against their xG—a shortfall that stung more because they'd earned that quality with 8 high-danger chances to Winnipeg's 6. They had the setup; Wallstedt and the finishing just never aligned.
