The Bruins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.86–2.36 and won anyway.
Boston won 4–2 despite controlling just 38% of expected goals. Superior goaltending and Seattle's inability to finish decided the game.
The xG split was 2.36 for Boston, 3.86 for Seattle. At 5v5, Seattle commanded 62% of the expected-goal share. The Bruins scored two goals from low-danger spots—exactly the kind of chances an opposing goalie needs to stop. J. Swayman made 26 saves on 28 shots, stopping 1.86 goals above expected. That's not luck; that's theft.
Boston's scoring model was rush-heavy: three goals on 19 rush chances, an elite conversion rate that masks a deeper problem. Outside the rush, the Bruins shot into a storm—just 24 shot attempts to Seattle's 28—and the danger levels didn't match their finish. The Kraken created four rebound opportunities, converting one, which suggests a team that understood how to generate second chances. They just couldn't put them away.
For Seattle, J. Daccord stopped 20 of 23 shots but underperformed his expected total by 0.64 goals. High-danger chances finished even at 3–3, meaning Seattle did the difficult work and got nothing for it. Their power play was the only outlier: 2 goals on 18 shots, with 1.95 xG—genuine dominance rendered meaningless in a loss.
