The Blue Jackets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Columbus created high-danger chances at a 4-to-1 rate (12–3) and controlled 65% of expected goals (5.49–2.98), yet both goalies' performances suppressed what should have been a more decisive result. E. Merzlikins saved 1.98 goals above expected while K. Lankinen saved 1.49—each overperforming against their respective chances. The scoreline misses what the underlying numbers reveal: E. Merzlikins stole a game Columbus was already winning.
The Blue Jackets held 54% of shot attempts (36–31) and generated superior danger throughout. They recorded 0.070 expected goals per shot versus Vancouver's 0.051, a quality advantage that manifested on the rush: 4 goals on 31 chances, a ruthless conversion rate. Their finish inside the high-danger area betrayed them—0 for 12—but K. Lankinen's perfection there (12 for 12 saves on high-danger looks) negated what could have been a rout.
Kent Johnson's wrist shot from the slot in the third period (10:13) typified Columbus's control. They dominated through shot volume (36 attempts), rebounding aggression (11 opportunities created), and consistent chance quality. Vancouver managed three high-danger chances and underperformed their 2.98 expected goals by 1.98; Columbus underperformed their 5.49 by 1.49. Both teams left goals on the table, but Columbus had far more to leave.
