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Breakdown · SJS at WSH

Sharks hold off the Capitals

FinalThu, Jan 15
SJSSan Jose Sharks3WSHWashington Capitals2
The verdict · earned

The Sharks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

SJS 3 · WSH 2
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 12:55 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

San Jose's 3-2 win masked the Capitals' possession edge—they held 47% of shot attempts and matched nearly even expected goals (2.48–2.79 split), yet the Sharks' efficiency trumped control.

The Capitals generated four rebound opportunities by crashing the net effectively, but converted just one. The Sharks, meanwhile, were ruthless on the rush: three goals on 21 rush chances demonstrated a transition sharpness the Capitals couldn't match.

High-danger chances (3–2, Sharks) tilted the same way. L. Thompson, the Capitals' goalie, faced 26 shots and allowed three goals, posting a 0.885 save percentage that reflected difficult looks he couldn't deny. A. Nedeljkovic answered with 21 saves on 23 attempts (0.913 SV%), recording critical stops down the stretch that sealed the outcome.

Ryan Leonard's snap shot from the high slot at 9:11 of the third period epitomized the Capitals' night: they generated chances but couldn't finish enough. C. Graf (1G, 1A in 20:06) and P. Regenda (1G, 1A in 13:46) led San Jose's counterattack, with J. Chychrun notching an assist (28:19) for the Capitals.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Jan 15
SJS
3
WSH
2

Sharks hold off the Capitals

Chances 2.8 – 2.5Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Sharks took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
SJS
2.79
WSH
2.48
53% of the chances47%

The board read SJS 3, WSH 2. The chances read SJS 2.8, WSH 2.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
SJS
+0.2
goals above expected
SJS2.79 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
WSH2.48 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 10:58WSHD. StromePP0–1
  2. P2 13:27SJSZ. Ostapchuk1–1
  3. P2 14:53SJSC. Graf2–1
  4. P2 16:13SJSP. Regenda3–1
  5. P3 09:11WSHR. Leonard3–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
SJS
38 shots
3
Final
76 shots
WSH
38 shots
2
SJS attackWSH attack
SJS WSH Goal
38
shots · 3 in
38
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
SJSWSH
2 / 3
0.74 xG
High danger
0 / 2
0.40 xG
1 / 14
1.48 xG
Medium
2 / 16
1.68 xG
0 / 36
0.57 xG
Low
0 / 32
0.41 xG

The Sharks buried 2 of 3 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B
A. Nedeljkovic
+0.5
SJS · 21/23
C
L. Thompson
−0.2
WSH · 23/26
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Sharks hold off the Capitals

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 11–5no goals
    2ndshots 12–4
    1. 10:58WSHD. Stromepower play(A. Ovechkin, J. Chychrun)0–1
    2. 13:27SJSZ. Ostapchuk(D. Orlov, W. Eklund)1–1
    3. 14:53SJSC. Graf(P. Regenda)2–1
    4. 16:13SJSP. Regenda(M. Celebrini, C. Graf)3–1
    3rdshots 3–14
    1. 09:11WSHR. Leonard(J. Carlson, M. Fehérváry)3–2

    score reads SJS–WSH

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    2.79
    SJS chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +0.2
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.017
    SJS puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    51.5%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.79Expected goals2.48
    SJS 53% of the chance quality
    26Shots on goal23
    3High-danger chances2
    53All attempts (Corsi)50
    Adjusted for score: SJS 49% · WSH 51%
    Faceoffs · WSH won56%off47%neu30%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    SJS2 / 3 · 0.74 xG
    WSH0 / 2 · 0.40 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    SJS1 / 14 · 1.48 xG
    WSH2 / 16 · 1.68 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    SJS0 / 36 · 0.57 xG
    WSH0 / 32 · 0.41 xG

    SJS went 2-for-3 from high danger on 0.74 expected goals — 1.3 above expected.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    SJS
    3 G · 2.79 xG · +0.2
    WSH
    2 G · 2.48 xG · -0.5
    01234

    SJS finished +0.2 against expected, WSH -0.5.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    SJS
    SNAP2/22
    SLAP0/10
    TIP IN1/4
    DEFLECTED0/1
    BACKHAND0/1
    WRIST0/0
    OTHER0/15
    WSH
    SNAP1/24
    SLAP0/7
    TIP IN0/2
    DEFLECTED0/2
    BACKHAND1/2
    WRIST0/1
    OTHER0/12
    SJS
    WSH
    Off the rush
    3 G on 21
    1.87 xG
    1 G on 19
    1.43 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 1
    0.16 xG
    1 G on 4
    0.40 xG

    Snap shots carried the volume: SJS went 2-for-22, WSH 1-for-24. SJS scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    A. Nedeljkovic
    SJS · 21/23 · .913
    +0.5
    saved above expected
    B
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/20.4+0.4
    Medium2/161.7-0.3
    Low0/320.4+0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    L. Thompson
    WSH · 23/26 · .885
    -0.2
    saved above expected
    C
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger2/30.7-1.3
    Medium1/141.5+0.5
    Low0/360.6+0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    76 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    SJS
    38 shots
    3
    Final
    76 shots
    WSH
    38 shots
    2
    SJS attackWSH attack
    SJS WSH Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — SJS left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    C. Graf
    #51 · R · SJS
    1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 20:06 on ice · +2
    P. Regenda
    #84 · L · SJS
    1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 13:46 on ice · +2
    J. Chychrun
    #6 · D · WSH
    0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 28:19 on ice · -1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Thu, Jan 15
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 12:52 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model makes this a pick'em. An expected-goal projection has Washington winning 2.5–2.7 goals per game with a 54% win probability—the closest the market gets to flipping a coin.

    San Jose is underwater over its last ten games, at -6 goal differential. Over the season at 5v5, the Sharks' 48.0% expected-goal share and 47.0% Corsi share trail a Washington team posting 50.0% xG and 49.0% Corsi. Washington's 1.018 PDO suggests fortune has been favorable; regression is coming. San Jose's 0.998 PDO shows the opposite tilt.

    The Capitals hold a rest edge: one day between games versus San Jose's three. L. Thompson arrives on a back-to-back; expect either fatigue or a possible backup starter.

    Washington's attack centers on Alex Ovechkin, generating 0.97 expected goals per 60 minutes with 19 goals and 17 assists. His 13.8% shooting rate and two high-danger goals suggest genuine opportunity creation. Anthony Beauvillier offers complementary firepower at 0.89 xG/60 with 14 goals, 9 assists, 10.4% shooting, and two high-danger goals.

    San Jose counters with Igor Chernyshov, who posts 0.91 xG/60 and carries 6 goals with 8 assists. His 15.0% shooting rate indicates efficiency. Pavol Regenda was positioned as a second catalyst at 1.10 xG/60 with 5 goals, 1 assist, and 16.1% shooting—but he's marked as likely unavailable.

    San Jose and Washington both register 0% on high-danger and rebound goals; neither has scored from those situations this season. Defensively, Declan Chisholm represents a liability for Washington; Igor Chernyshov fills that role for the Sharks.

    The analytics suggest parity. Rest and potential goaltending questions tilt the scale marginally toward Washington, but only barely. A coin flip remains the honest projection.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    WSH 54%
    54%
    WSH
    Model favorite
    46%
    54%
    SJS50WSH

    WSH by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score SJS 2.5–2.7 WSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    SJS← edge
    edge →WSH
    48.0%50.0%
    47.0%49.0%
    2.332.62
    2.562.62
    1.992.18
    2.321.79
    0.9981.018

    WSH holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.998 vs 1.018) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    SJS
    6-4-0
    -6 GD · 3d rest
    WSH
    5-4-1
    +4 GD · 1d rest
    0.998
    SJS PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.018
    WSH PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Regression watch
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Sharks are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    • The Sharks have 2 more days of rest.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    SJS
    Expected in goal
    Y. Askarov
    3 days rest.806 last start
    Backup Yaroslav Askarov · -18.9 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    WSH
    Expected in goal
    L. Thompson
    back-to-back.920 last start
    Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    SJS
    Pavol Regenda5G 1A
    1.10 xG/60 · 2 HD · 16.1% sh
    Igor Chernyshov6G 8A
    0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 15.0% sh
    WSH
    Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
    0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
    Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
    0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page