Motion-blurred skater in a Calgary Flames sweater

Breakdown · NYI at CGY

D. Wolf stands tall as the Flames edge the Islanders

FinalSat, Jan 17

NYINew York Islanders2 CGYCalgary Flames4

The verdict · stolen

The Flames stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.64–3.73 and won anyway.

NYI 2 · CGY 4

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 1:19 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Islanders dominated the expected-goals battle—controlling 55% of 5v5 xG at 4.64–3.73—yet lost 4–2. This was a goaltending heist.

D. Wolf (CGY) was the decisive factor. At 0.933 SV%, he made 28 saves on 30 shots and stopped 2.64 goals above expected. The Islanders created eight high-danger chances and converted zero; D. Wolf stopped all eight shots. That efficiency gap decided the game.

Calgary struck on 4 of 22 rush attempts; New York converted 2 of 34. The disparity was finishing, not volume.

New York out-shot Calgary 30–19, but volume mattered little. The Islanders underperformed their xG by 2.64 goals—the margin of defeat.

Anders Lee's wrist shot from a sharp angle (P3, 17:04) was New York's clearest chance, but Wolf denied it. D. Rittich (NYI) made 15 saves on 19 shots (0.789 SV%), respectable work in a losing effort.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Jan 17

NYI

CGY

D. Wolf stands tall as the Flames edge the Islanders

Chances 4.6 – 3.7Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Islanders deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

NYI

4.64

CGY

3.73

55% of the chances45%

The board read NYI 2, CGY 4. The chances read NYI 4.6, CGY 3.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

CGY

+0.3

goals above expected

CGY3.73 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

NYI4.64 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

The Islanders left 2.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 11:51CGYY. Sharangovich0–1
P2 03:04CGYA. Klapka0–2
P2 09:50CGYJ. Kirkland0–3
P2 11:49CGYY. Kuznetsov0–4
P2 12:21NYIJ. Pageau1–4
P3 17:04NYIA. LeePP2–4

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYI

59 shots

Final

96 shots

CGY

37 shots

NYI CGY GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 2 in

shots · 4 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYICGY

0 / 8

1.77 xG

High danger

1 / 4

1.98 xG

1 / 18

2.15 xG

Medium

2 / 11

1.21 xG

1 / 49

0.73 xG

Low

1 / 38

0.54 xG

The Islanders went 0 for 8 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

D. Wolf

+2.6

CGY · 28/30

D. Rittich

−0.3

NYI · 15/19

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

D. Wolf stands tall as the Flames edge the Islanders

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 10–4

11:51CGYY. Sharangovich(R. Andersson, K. Bahl)0–1

2ndshots 9–7

03:04CGYA. Klapka(K. Bahl, M. Frost)0–2
09:50CGYJ. Kirkland(R. Lomberg, A. Klapka)0–3
11:49CGYY. Kuznetsov(N. Kadri, C. Zary)0–4
12:21NYIJ. Pageau(M. Schaefer, S. Holmstrom)1–4

3rdshots 11–8

17:04NYIA. Leepower play(C. Ritchie, M. Schaefer)2–4

score reads NYI–CGY

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.73

CGY chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.3

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.049

CGY puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

41.4%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.64Expected goals3.73

NYI 55% of the chance quality

30Shots on goal19

8High-danger chances4

75All attempts (Corsi)53

Adjusted for score: NYI 64% · CGY 36%

Faceoffs · CGY won20%off47%neu50%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYI0 / 8 · 1.77 xG

CGY1 / 4 · 1.98 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYI1 / 18 · 2.15 xG

CGY2 / 11 · 1.21 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYI1 / 49 · 0.73 xG

CGY1 / 38 · 0.54 xG

NYI went 0-for-8 from high danger on 1.77 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYI

2 G · 4.64 xG · -2.6

CGY

4 G · 3.73 xG · +0.3

012345

NYI finished -2.6 against expected, CGY +0.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYI

WRIST2/30

SLAP0/8

TIP IN0/8

SNAP0/7

DEFLECTED0/3

BACKHAND0/1

WRAP AROUND0/1

BAT0/1

OTHER0/16

CGY

WRIST3/19

SLAP0/6

TIP IN1/5

SNAP0/5

DEFLECTED0/0

BACKHAND0/1

WRAP AROUND0/1

BAT0/0

OTHER0/16

NYI

CGY

Off the rush

2 G on 34

3.13 xG

4 G on 22

1.84 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 5

0.92 xG

0 G on 1

0.16 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYI went 2-for-30, CGY 3-for-19. CGY scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

D. Rittich

NYI · 15/19 · .789

-0.3

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/42.0+1.0

Medium2/111.2-0.8

Low1/380.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Wolf

CGY · 28/30 · .933

+2.6

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/81.8+1.8

Medium1/182.1+1.1

Low1/490.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

96 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYI

59 shots

Final

96 shots

CGY

37 shots

NYI CGY GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYI left, CGY right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Schaefer

#48 · D · NYI

0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 25:35 on ice · -1

K. Bahl

#7 · D · CGY

0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 21:38 on ice · +3

A. Klapka

#43 · R · CGY

1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 11:38 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Jan 17

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 1:07 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects this as essentially a toss-up: 2.6 goals for the Islanders, 2.6 for Calgary, Flames holding 51 percent win probability. This is pick-'em hockey.

The underlying numbers explain why. Both teams own 49.0 percent Corsi at five-on-five—identical shot volume. The Islanders' 48.0 percent expected goals sits marginally above Calgary's 47.0 percent. Neither team has carved out a statistical edge through play.

One lever favors the Flames: a PDO of 0.985, running cold and due for positive regression. New York's 0.993 PDO offers no comparable buffer.

Both goaltenders face back-to-back starts—D. Cooley for Calgary, I. Sorokin for the Islanders—adding fatigue to margins that are already thin.

Anders Lee drives New York's offense, generating 1.20 expected goals per 60 minutes with 9 goals and 20 assists on 6.4 percent shooting. Bo Horvat presents a contrasting profile: 18 goals on 12.8 percent shooting and 3 high-danger chances, despite a lower 0.87 expected goals per 60 minutes.

Calgary counters with Blake Coleman at 0.89 xG/60, posting 16 goals and 12 assists at 11.4 percent conversion. Matt Coronato rounds the attack at 0.80 xG/60, shooting 6.6 percent with 10 goals and 16 assists.

New York's defensive weak link is Alexander Romanov; Calgary's is Matt Coronato. Both teams have generated zero high-danger and zero rebound goals.

With metrics this aligned, execution and luck determine the outcome.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

CGY 51%

51%

CGY

Model favorite

49%

51%

NYI50CGY

CGY by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYI 2.6–2.6 CGY; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI← edge

edge →CGY

48.0%47.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.482.36

2.692.66

1.781.76

1.942.15

0.9930.985

NYI holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 0.985) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYI

6-3-1

+6 GD · 1d rest

CGY

5-5-0

-4 GD · 1d rest

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.985

CGY PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Flames' PDO is 0.985 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

D. Cooley is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
I. Sorokin is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Flames' PDO is 0.985 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYI

Expected in goal

I. Sorokin

back-to-back1.000 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

CGY

Expected in goal

D. Cooley

back-to-back.957 last start

Backup Dustin Wolf · -1.8 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

CGY

Blake Coleman16G 12A

0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.4% sh

Matt Coronato10G 16A

0.80 xG/60 · 0 HD · 6.6% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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