The Canadiens won 6-5 in overtime by outwishing their scoreline, not outplaying it. Montreal generated only 3.18 expected goals to Ottawa's 5.96 — a 35–65 split that should have sent the Senators home winners. Instead, Cole Caufield ended it at 00:33 of OT, converting the heist into a result.

Montreal outperformed their xG by 2.82 goals while Ottawa underperformed theirs by 0.96. That margin belongs to goaltending and fortune. S. Montembeault stopped 29 of 34 shots at a 0.853 save percentage, exceeding expectation. L. Meriläinen made 13 of 19 saves at 0.684, well below what the workload demanded.

The game turned on Montreal's rush attack. The Canadiens scored 4 goals on 19 rush chances against Ottawa's 3 on 24 — marginal volumes but decisive efficiency. On high-danger chances, Ottawa dominated 13–5. Montreal converted 0 of 5 high-danger attempts but stole 2 goals from low-danger positions, plays where opposing goalies must earn their keep.

Cole Caufield finished with 2 goals and 1 assist in 19:19, capping his night with the decider. J. Sanderson led the Senators with 1 goal and 3 assists in 25:39. L. Hutson steered Montreal's offense with 3 assists in 26:22.

Montreal's overperformance and Ottawa's underperformance weren't symmetrical — the Senators missed 0.96 goals while the Canadiens banked an extra 2.82. L. Meriläinen was 100% on five high-danger chances, meaning the Canadiens' surplus came from elsewhere: low-danger conversions and outrushing the Senators. That formula does not repeat often.

The model projects a 2.3 to 2.8 goal game favoring the Senators, who own 59% win probability.

Montreal arrives hotter by points pace, running 6-3-1 over its last 10 games. Ottawa, by contrast, is underwater at minus-8 goal differential in that same stretch. But the underlying numbers tell a different story. Ottawa dominates expected goals at 56.0% to Montreal's 48.0%, and controls shot volume at 53.0% Corsi against 49.0%. The Senators should win this matchup more often than not — the model is simply catching up to reality.

Montreal's PDO sits at 1.018 — running hot, unsustainable. Expect Montreal's conversion and save rates to regress downward. Ottawa's PDO of 0.993 runs cold, meaning the Senators have gotten unlucky on both ends. When you own the underlying play and have room to improve on luck, you have a lean.

Ottawa's edge sharpens when you isolate shot quality. Cole Caufield leads Montreal with 0.97 expected goals per 60 minutes, having scored 33 goals on 16 assists with a 20.0% shooting rate. That's elite. But Oliver Kapanen (0.83 xG/60, 19 goals, 17.8% shooting) sits well behind, leaving Montreal dependent on Caufield's scoring burst to compensate. For Ottawa, Brady Tkachuk generates 1.19 xG/60 — a higher threat rate — and has found balance with 11 goals and 20 assists at just 7.5% efficiency, suggesting room for growth. Dylan Cozens (1.00 xG/60, 13 goals, 15 assists, 9.5% shooting) provides secondary punch.

Defensively, Montreal has a weak link in Mike Matheson. Ottawa's equivalent is Nick Jensen. The matchup advantage here belongs to Ottawa, which can impose its higher-volume attack on Montreal's inferior underlying defense.

The goaltending note: J. Fowler is on a back-to-back. Watch for either a backup start or a tired starter, either of which shifts the edge further toward Ottawa.

This is a model alignment situation — the public may still respect Montreal's recent form, but the underlying metrics have already moved on. The Senators have the play, the luck room, and the favorable matchups. Ottawa wins this one more than it loses.