Motion-blurred skater in a Florida Panthers sweater

Breakdown · FLA at WSH

Panthers pull away from the Capitals

FinalSat, Jan 17

FLAFlorida Panthers5 WSHWashington Capitals2

The verdict · earned

The Panthers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

FLA 5 · WSH 2

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:09 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Capitals' problem wasn't effort — it was finishing. They went scoreless on seven high-danger chances, a conversion rate so rare it reads like a typo. By the xG model, they should have scored closer to four, not two.

Florida dominated the underlying game too. They controlled 57% of expected goals (5.12–3.91) and the scoreline reflected it: 5–2. But the Panthers' margin was built as much on Washington's miscalibration as on Florida's execution.

The Capitals held 44% of shot attempts and generated 15 high-danger chances — not bad for a losing effort. The problem: they didn't convert any of them. D. Tarasov (FLA) was impenetrable in those spots, posting a perfect record on seven high-danger shots and overperforming his xG by 1.91 goals. Florida, meanwhile, buried 4 of 8 high-danger chances — a 50% clip that won't repeat.

Carter Verhaeghe's snap shot from the high slot (P3, 19:26) was the turning point, one of Florida's clinical performances in the high-danger zone. The Panthers proved just as lethal off the rush, converting two goals on 31 rush chances. Washington created six rebound opportunities but couldn't cash any.

The Capitals' shot volume (24 on goal) masked a deeper issue: their quality wasn't translating. S. Bennett (FLA) was the event's defining presence, collecting 1G, 2A in 20:22. J. Chychrun (WSH) answered with 2G in 25:02, but his individual performance couldn't offset the team's struggle to find the high-danger finish. S. Reinhart (FLA) rounded out the impact with 2A in 22:05.

Washington underperformed their xG by 1.91 goals — a gap that explained the 5–2 final more accurately than shot attempts ever could. In a game where chances were plentiful, execution was the difference.

Three Stars

#9 S. Bennett (FLA) — 1G, 2A in 20:22
#6 J. Chychrun (WSH) — 2G in 25:02
#13 S. Reinhart (FLA) — 2A in 22:05

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Jan 17

FLA

WSH

Panthers pull away from the Capitals

Chances 5.1 – 3.9Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Panthers earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

FLA

5.12

WSH

3.91

57% of the chances43%

The board read FLA 5, WSH 2. The chances read FLA 5.1, WSH 3.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

FLA

−0.1

goals above expected

FLA5.12 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

WSH3.91 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

The Capitals left 1.9 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 13:23FLAA. Greer1–0
P2 02:04WSHJ. Chychrun1–1
P2 10:04WSHJ. Chychrun1–2
P2 11:40FLAS. Bennett2–2
P2 15:16FLAU. BalinskisPP3–2
P3 18:40FLAA. LundellEN4–2
P3 19:26FLAC. VerhaegheEN5–2

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

FLA

50 shots

Final

95 shots

WSH

45 shots

FLA WSH GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 5 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

FLAWSH

4 / 8

2.72 xG

High danger

0 / 7

1.77 xG

0 / 16

1.69 xG

Medium

1 / 14

1.63 xG

1 / 45

0.71 xG

Low

1 / 34

0.51 xG

The Capitals went 0 for 7 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

L. Thompson

+2.1

WSH · 26/29

D. Tarasov

+1.9

FLA · 22/24

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Panthers pull away from the Capitals

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 14–4

13:23FLAA. Greer(S. Bennett, A. Ekblad)1–0

2ndshots 7–14

02:04WSHJ. Chychrun(A. Protas, J. Carlson)1–1
10:04WSHJ. Chychrun(J. Carlson, N. Dowd)1–2
11:40FLAS. Bennett(C. Verhaeghe, N. Mikkola)2–2
15:16FLAU. Balinskispower play(A. Lundell, S. Reinhart)3–2

3rdshots 10–6

18:40FLAA. Lundellempty net(S. Reinhart)4–2
19:26FLAC. Verhaegheempty net(S. Bennett, A. Greer)5–2

score reads FLA–WSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

5.12

FLA chances

Goals their shots were worth

−0.1

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.036

FLA puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

55.6%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

5.12Expected goals3.91

FLA 57% of the chance quality

31Shots on goal24

8High-danger chances7

69All attempts (Corsi)55

Adjusted for score: FLA 54% · WSH 46%

Faceoffs · WSH won50%off58%neu67%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

FLA4 / 8 · 2.72 xG

WSH0 / 7 · 1.77 xG

Medium dangermid-range

FLA0 / 16 · 1.69 xG

WSH1 / 14 · 1.63 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

FLA1 / 45 · 0.71 xG

WSH1 / 34 · 0.51 xG

WSH went 0-for-7 from high danger on 1.77 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

FLA

5 G · 5.12 xG · -0.1

WSH

2 G · 3.91 xG · -1.9

0123456

FLA finished -0.1 against expected, WSH -1.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

FLA

SNAP4/30

TIP IN0/8

SLAP1/6

WRIST0/3

BACKHAND0/3

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/19

WSH

SNAP2/24

TIP IN0/5

SLAP0/4

WRIST0/6

BACKHAND0/3

DEFLECTED0/3

OTHER0/10

FLA

WSH

Off the rush

2 G on 31

3.62 xG

1 G on 23

2.20 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 2

0.20 xG

0 G on 6

1.16 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: FLA went 4-for-30, WSH 2-for-24. FLA scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

D. Tarasov

FLA · 22/24 · .917

+1.9

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/71.8+1.8

Medium1/141.6+0.6

Low1/340.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

L. Thompson

WSH · 26/29 · .897

+2.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger4/82.7-1.3

Medium0/161.7+1.7

Low1/450.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

95 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

FLA

50 shots

Final

95 shots

WSH

45 shots

FLA WSH GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — FLA left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

S. Bennett

#9 · C · FLA

1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG · 20:22 on ice · +3

J. Chychrun

#6 · D · WSH

2 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 25:02 on ice · -1

S. Reinhart

#13 · C · FLA

0 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 22:05 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Jan 17

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 1:21 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model barely splits hairs here. The Capitals project as 53% favorites in a game trending toward FLA 2.5–2.7 WSH — statistical picking a coin up off the table.

What makes this genuinely close: Panthers control play. Their Corsi sits at 52.0%, meaning they'll likely own territory. But they're underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10, so results haven't caught up to process. Meanwhile, the Capitals' xG% sits at 50.0% to Florida's 49.0%, a marginal edge that doesn't scream dominant.

The most obvious angle: rest. Washington enters on just 1 day off. Florida gets 4. That's the kind of institutional advantage that compounds over 60 minutes, especially against a Capitals team that's been running hot.

Speaking of hot: look at Washington's PDO. At 1.018, they're converting at a clip that historically doesn't hold. Regression math suggests points left on the table for Florida's takeaway.

On talent, the matchup hinges on scoring depth. Sam Bennett leads Florida at 0.97 xG/60 with 18 goals and 19 assists—he's efficient and he's producing. Brad Marchand brings 0.93 xG/60 with 17 goals and 9 assists. For Washington, Alex Ovechkin's 0.97 xG/60 mirrors Bennett's workrate, though Ovechkin's 19 goals show heavier conversion. Anthony Beauvillier at 0.89 xG/60 with 14 goals rounds out depth that leans on secondary scoring.

The goaltending question marks it down. L. Thompson is on a back-to-back—whether that means a backup start or a tired starter will shape the game's ceiling more than underlying metrics ever do.

This is the rarest kind of betting line: one where neither side has built a case compelling enough to break the tie. The Capitals' small rest disadvantage eats their model edge. The Panthers' better rest can't overcome their recent results. In such a balance, execution and health matter more than preview sheets.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WSH 53%

53%

WSH

Model favorite

47%

53%

FLA50WSH

WSH by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score FLA 2.5–2.7 WSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

FLA← edge

edge →WSH

49.0%50.0%

52.0%49.0%

2.482.62

2.562.62

1.982.18

2.211.79

0.9891.018

WSH holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.989 vs 1.018) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

FLA

5-4-1

-6 GD · 4d rest

WSH

4-5-1

+2 GD · 1d rest

0.989

FLA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.018

WSH PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Panthers are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
The Panthers have 3 more days of rest.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

FLA

Expected in goal

S. Bobrovsky

4 days rest.870 last start

Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · -12.2 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WSH

Expected in goal

L. Thompson

back-to-back.885 last start

Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

FLA

Sam Bennett18G 19A

0.97 xG/60 · 6 HD · 13.1% sh

Brad Marchand17G 9A

0.93 xG/60 · 3 HD · 19.5% sh

WSH

Alex Ovechkin19G 17A

0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh

Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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