The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Colorado dominated 5-2, and the underlying numbers endorsed the verdict—but Washington got particularly unlucky getting there. The Capitals underperformed their expected goals by 1.55, managing only 2 goals on 3.55 xG despite having quality chances the numbers said should have gone in.
Colorado controlled the game completely. They held 65% of shot attempts (44–24) and finished 59% of expected goals (5.16–3.55). In the high-danger zone, the Avalanche were ruthless: 3 of 7 chances became goals, a 43% conversion rate. Off the rush, they were even more efficient—4 goals from just 45 chances.
S. Wedgewood played the game's most decisive role, stopping 1.6 goals above expected. C. Lindgren faced 44 shots and allowed 5, posting an 0.886 save percentage against overwhelming volume.
The turning point came in the third period, when N. MacKinnon fired a snap shot from the slot at 16:30, seizing the moment Colorado's dominance warranted.
Colorado did have one minor inefficiency: they slightly underperformed their own xG (5 goals on 5.16 expected), suggesting they could have run up the score further. But when you're outshooting an opponent nearly 2-to-1 and converting at elite rates, the scoreline speaks for itself.
