The Devils' 2-1 overtime victory understated their dominance. They controlled 62% of expected goals at 5-on-5 (3.04–1.88), a margin that suggested a blowout rather than a one-goal win.

New Jersey simply generated better looks. They averaged 0.056 expected goals per shot; Calgary managed 0.041. That quality gap materialized in the rush, where the Devils converted 2 goals on 24 chances.

The Flames folded on the underlying metrics. They recorded just 38% of xG while ceding 41% of shot attempts. Only their goaltending prevented an even larger margin: D. Cooley posted a 0.938 save percentage, outplaying his xG model by 1.04 goals.

New Jersey underperformed slightly themselves—finishing with 2 goals on an xG of 3.04, leaving 1.04 in the tank—but J. Markstrom was nearly flawless, stopping 21 of 22 shots (0.955 SV%, +0.88). The net advantage was decisive: when Calgary attacked, they got low-danger looks; when New Jersey did, they found soft areas.

S. Nemec's overtime snap from the slot at 01:18 was the visual confirmation of what the xG model had been saying all night.

New Jersey and Calgary project to 2.6 and 2.5 goals respectively, with the Devils at 50% win probability. This is about as close to an even matchup as you'll find.

The Devils own the underlying play. They're generating 50.0% of expected goals at 5v5 to Calgary's 47.0%, and they lead in possession metrics too, holding 51.0% Corsi to the Flames' 49.0%. Yet Jersey sits -14 on goal differential over their last 10 games—a sign that their underlying dominance hasn't translated to results. That's the coin flip: the better team on paper has underperformed.

Both squads are running cold. New Jersey's PDO sits at 0.971, Calgary's at 0.985. When you're shooting and save-percentage-suppressed like this, regression toward the mean becomes the dominant variable. Both should get healthier.

The Devil side leans on Timo Meier and Jack Hughes. Meier is clicking at 1.08 expected goals per 60 minutes with 13 goals and 15 assists; his 3 high-danger chances and 6.7% shooting rate suggest he's generating elite looks and finishing them. Hughes has 18 goals and 17 assists at 11.5% shooting but only 1 high-danger goal despite 0.88 xG/60—he's creating at a high rate but converting at an above-average rate from a mix of opportunities. Both are threats.

Calgary counters with Blake Coleman and Matt Coronato. Coleman posts 0.89 xG/60 with 16 goals, 12 assists, and 2 high-danger goals at a 11.4% shooting rate—comparable production to Meier, though slightly lower volume. Coronato has been quieter offensively with 10 goals, 16 assists, 0.80 xG/60, and 6.6% shooting, but represents the kind of depth Calgary has leaned on.

One wrinkle: J. Markstrom is on a back-to-back. Calgary could opt for a backup start, or Markstrom takes the net tired. Either way, New Jersey should hunt shooting volume early.

The underlying math says New Jersey should win this more often than not—their shot-generation edge is real. But PDO regression cuts both ways. If Calgary gets even slightly healthier while New Jersey stays cold, the tables flip. Fifty-fifty feels right.