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Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater
← Mon, Jan 19 · the slate
Breakdown · NYI at VAN

Islanders hold off the Canucks

FinalMon, Jan 19
NYINew York Islanders4VANVancouver Canucks3
The verdict · coin flip

The Islanders won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

NYI 4 · VAN 3
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 1:39 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Vancouver underperformed its expected goals by 1.28 — a shortfall that explains how the Islanders escaped with a 4–3 win despite an essentially even game underneath.

Expected goals split 4.28–4.37, the slimmest of edges to New York. The Canucks went 0 for 8 on high-danger chances, a drought unlikely to repeat. Sorokin was imperious: he was perfect on all 8 high-danger shots and finished +1.28 goals versus expected.

Lankinen matched that standard, stopping all 6 high-danger chances against him. Both goalies played at an elite level; the Islanders' advantage came on the rush. New York scored 4 times on 34 rush attempts; the Canucks managed 2 on 26.

At 5-on-5, Vancouver held their own — 49% of shot attempts (32–33 on goal). The rush differential decided the night. Schaefer and Barzal led the Islanders with two assists each, while DeAngelo added a goal and assist.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Jan 19
NYI
4
VAN
3

Islanders hold off the Canucks

Chances 4.4 – 4.3Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Islanders took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
NYI
4.37
VAN
4.28
51% of the chances50%

The board read NYI 4, VAN 3. The chances read NYI 4.4, VAN 4.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NYI
−0.4
goals above expected
NYI4.37 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
VAN4.28 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 02:49VANM. Sasson0–1
  2. P1 10:11NYIA. Duclair1–1
  3. P1 14:48VANE. Kane1–2
  4. P2 14:34NYIA. DuclairPP2–2
  5. P2 15:58NYIR. Pulock3–2
  6. P3 10:15NYIT. DeAngelo4–2
  7. P3 18:09VAND. O'ConnorPP4–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NYI
48 shots
4
Final
92 shots
VAN
44 shots
3
NYI attackVAN attack
NYI VAN Goal
48
shots · 4 in
44
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NYIVAN
0 / 6
1.48 xG
High danger
0 / 8
1.84 xG
4 / 20
2.39 xG
Medium
3 / 18
1.89 xG
0 / 32
0.49 xG
Low
0 / 37
0.56 xG

The Canucks went 0 for 8 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
I. Sorokin
+1.3
NYI · 29/32
B
K. Lankinen
+0.4
VAN · 29/33
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Islanders hold off the Canucks

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 9–12
  1. 02:49VANM. Sasson(L. Karlsson, N. Hoglander)0–1
  2. 10:11NYIA. Duclair(T. DeAngelo, M. Schaefer)1–1
  3. 14:48VANE. Kane(E. Pettersson, D. Kampf)1–2
2ndshots 15–12
  1. 14:34NYIA. Duclairpower play(C. Ritchie, M. Barzal)2–2
  2. 15:58NYIR. Pulock(M. Schaefer, J. Pageau)3–2
3rdshots 9–8
  1. 10:15NYIT. DeAngelo(M. Barzal, A. Lee)4–2
  2. 18:09VAND. O'Connorpower play(F. Hronek)4–3

score reads NYI–VAN

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.37
NYI chances
Goals their shots were worth
−0.4
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
1.021
NYI puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
47.9%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.37Expected goals4.28
NYI 51% of the chance quality
33Shots on goal32
6High-danger chances8
58All attempts (Corsi)63
Adjusted for score: NYI 48% · VAN 52%
Faceoffs · VAN won75%off40%neu50%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
NYI0 / 6 · 1.48 xG
VAN0 / 8 · 1.84 xG
Medium dangermid-range
NYI4 / 20 · 2.39 xG
VAN3 / 18 · 1.89 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
NYI0 / 32 · 0.49 xG
VAN0 / 37 · 0.56 xG

VAN went 0-for-8 from high danger on 1.84 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
NYI
4 G · 4.37 xG · -0.4
VAN
3 G · 4.28 xG · -1.3
012345

NYI finished -0.4 against expected, VAN -1.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
NYI
WRIST1/26
TIP IN0/5
SNAP3/8
BACKHAND0/4
SLAP0/2
WRAP AROUND0/1
DEFLECTED0/1
BETWEEN LEGS0/1
OTHER0/10
VAN
WRIST0/24
TIP IN2/8
SNAP1/3
BACKHAND0/5
SLAP0/2
WRAP AROUND0/1
DEFLECTED0/1
BETWEEN LEGS0/0
OTHER0/19
NYI
VAN
Off the rush
4 G on 34
3.12 xG
2 G on 26
2.80 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 4
0.62 xG
0 G on 5
0.84 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYI went 1-for-26, VAN 0-for-24. NYI scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
I. Sorokin
NYI · 29/32 · .906
+1.3
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/81.8+1.8
Medium3/181.9-1.1
Low0/370.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

K. Lankinen
VAN · 29/33 · .879
+0.4
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/61.5+1.5
Medium4/202.4-1.6
Low0/320.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

92 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
NYI
48 shots
4
Final
92 shots
VAN
44 shots
3
NYI attackVAN attack
NYI VAN Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYI left, VAN right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
M. Schaefer
#48 · D · NYI
0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 25:04 on ice · +1
M. Barzal
#13 · C · NYI
0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 20:38 on ice · +1
T. DeAngelo
#77 · D · NYI
1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 17:08 on ice
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Jan 19
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 1:36 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.6–2.6 game with the Islanders at 51% win probability—about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

The Islanders are 5-4-1 in their last ten while Vancouver carries a -29 goal differential in that span. New York is climbing, Vancouver is falling. Under 5v5, the Islanders own the puck play: 48.0% expected goals to 44.0%, and 49.0% Corsi to 46.0%. Better chances, better control.

The Canucks' 0.974 PDO says they're running cold—bad puck luck stacked with weak underlying process. Regression is overdue, and luck tends to even out, but not necessarily in a single game.

N. Tolopilo is on a back-to-back; watch whether the team goes with a backup or runs a tired starter. That's a hinge point.

The forward matchups matter. Anders Lee generates 1.20 expected goals per 60 with 9 goals and 20 assists—but his 6.4% shooting rate and just 2 high-danger chances suggest production outrunning underlying play. Bo Horvat inverts it: 0.87 xG/60, 18 goals, 10 assists, 12.8% shooting, 3 high-danger goals. His actual output is hot; expect it to cool.

For Vancouver, Filip Chytil's 1.03 xG/60 with just 3 goals and 0 assists is the alarm; a 15.0% shooting rate and 1 high-danger goal show a player creating chances but misfiring. Drew O'Connor steadies that line: 0.85 xG/60, 13 goals, 11 assists, 11.8% shooting, 3 high-danger goals.

The Islanders have a clean edge in puck possession and shot quality. Vancouver sits in regression territory. New York is fresher. None of this is enough to pick one side with real conviction. This is a genuine coin flip.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NYI 51%
51%
NYI
Model favorite
51%
49%
NYI50VAN

NYI by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYI 2.6–2.6 VAN; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
NYI← edge
edge →VAN
48.0%44.0%
49.0%46.0%
2.482.22
2.692.81
1.781.60
1.942.56
0.9930.974

NYI holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 0.974) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
NYI
5-4-1
+2 GD · 2d rest
VAN
0-8-2
-29 GD · 1d rest
0.993
NYI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.974
VAN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Islanders own the underlying play — 48.0% 5v5 xG vs 44.0%.
Regression watch
  • The Canucks' PDO is 0.974 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Islanders own the underlying play — 48.0% 5v5 xG vs 44.0%.
  • N. Tolopilo is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Islanders are the hotter team by points pace (5-4-1 in their last 10).
  • The Canucks are underwater at -29 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Canucks' PDO is 0.974 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
NYI
Expected in goal
D. Rittich
2 days rest.789 last start
Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

VAN
Expected in goal
N. Tolopilo
back-to-back.829 last start
Backup Kevin Lankinen · -19.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
NYI
Anders Lee9G 20A
1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh
Bo Horvat18G 10A
0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh
VAN
Filip Chytil3G 0A
1.03 xG/60 · 1 HD · 15.0% sh
Drew O'Connor13G 11A
0.85 xG/60 · 3 HD · 11.8% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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