Ducks hold off the Rangers

The model projects an Anaheim 2.4–2.7 New York goal range with the Ducks at 55% win probability.

Both teams are bleeding goals. The Ducks sit minus-12 over their last 10; the Rangers are minus-17. But Anaheim dominates the underlying play. The Ducks generate 52.0% expected goals at even strength versus New York's 48.0%, controlling possession at 52.0% Corsi. They own the territorial tilt.

The wrinkle: Anaheim's 0.981 PDO reads as outright bad puck luck, while New York's 1.009 reads as unsustainable good luck. Expect positive regression favoring the Ducks.

Goaltending adds a layer. V. Husso plays on the back-to-back for the Rangers — watch for either a backup or a tired starter.

Beckett Sennecke is Anaheim's engine. He posts 1.03 expected goals per 60 minutes, 20 goals and 19 assists, and drives 8 high-danger chances. That volume makes him the Ducks' most dangerous player. Cutter Gauthier, also a driver at 0.99 xG/60, brings 25 goals and 16 assists to stress New York's depth.

For the Rangers, Adam Sykora carries 0.91 xG/60 with a blistering 20.0% shooting rate — proof he's heating up on just 3 goals and 1 assist. Gabe Perreault adds 8 goals with a 13.1% shooting clip and 2 high-danger chances, a secondary threat.

New York's defensive liability sits with Vincent Iorio. Anaheim's is Mason McTavish. Neither team is converting off the rush — both sit at 0% high-danger goal rate and 0% rebound goal rate. This means the Ducks' volume edge matters even more. They'll pile chances; at worst, they'll eventually find one.

The Ducks are cold but own what matters: the puck. The Rangers are warm but own nothing underneath. When PDO regresses, this game's expected winner becomes the actual one.