The Canadiens won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
Montreal's 4-3 victory masks a close underlying game. Expected goals favored Minnesota 2.46 to 2.29 — a 48-52 split — yet the Canadiens overperformed by 1.71 goals, suggesting elite finishing or favorable variance rather than dominance.
The goaltending split explains much of the margin. J. Wallstedt stopped 29 of 33 for the Wild, posting a 0.879 save percentage 1.71 goals worse than expected. J. Dobes recorded 17 of 20 saves for Montreal at 0.850, also underperforming but by only 0.54 goals while facing fewer dangerous looks.
Montreal controlled shot attempts at 62% (33-20 on goal), yet the quality gap ran the opposite direction. Minnesota generated 0.052 expected goals per shot; Montreal 0.030 — the Wild were nearly twice as efficient. This edge crystallized on the power play: Minnesota scored 2 goals on 11 shots for 0.72 xG, a dominant special-teams showing.
The deciding factor was the rush. Montreal buried 3 goals on 28 rush opportunities; Minnesota converted 2 of 21. That single-goal gap on transition is why Montreal leaves with the win despite the Wild's superior shot quality and more efficient offense.
Cole Caufield's slap shot from the top of the circles (19:45, period 3) marked the turning point — a moment exemplifying Montreal's conversion rate when the xG model predicted something closer.