Motion-blurred skater in a Buffalo Sabres sweater

Breakdown · BUF at NSH

Sabres hold off the Predators

FinalTue, Jan 20

BUFBuffalo Sabres5 NSHNashville Predators3

The verdict · stolen

The Sabres stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.30–5.15 and won anyway.

BUF 5 · NSH 3

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 1:52 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Sabres beat the Predators 5-3 despite posting just 3.30 expected goals to Nashville's 5.15. By that measure, Buffalo had no business winning. Nashville owned 61% of the xG, 51% of shot attempts, and won 7-4 in high-danger chances. This was a heist.

The heist succeeded because of goaltending variance in Buffalo's favor. A. Lyon made 31 saves on 34 shots with a 0.912 save percentage, stopping 2.15 goals above expected. J. Saros, pulled after two periods, saved only 15 of 19 shots (0.789 SV%), surrendering 2.04 more goals than his workload merited. Nashville's backup J. Annunen was flawless in limited work (13 saves, 1.000 SV%, +1.34 vs. expected), but he could only stem the bleeding.

The turning point came with Peyton Krebs's wrist shot from the wing in the third period (18:14). By then, Nashville's possession advantage had failed to generate consistent finishing. The Predators had created nine rebound opportunities and converted none, a sign of their inability to capitalize despite the volume.

Interestingly, both teams were equally lethal off the rush: Buffalo scored 3 goals on 30 rush chances, Nashville 3 on 35. The difference was that Buffalo's other shot types found the net more often; Nashville's didn't.

R. O'Reilly (NSH) led with 2 goals and 1 assist in 20:42. F. Forsberg (NSH) added 1 goal and 2 assists in 19:38. K. Helenius (BUF) countered with 1 goal and 2 assists in 14:43. Nashville played the better hockey. Buffalo won the game.

The breakdown in twelve frames

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Every number is from this page

Final · Jan 20

BUF

NSH

Sabres hold off the Predators

Chances 3.3 – 5.2Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Predators deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

BUF

3.30

NSH

5.15

39% of the chances61%

The board read BUF 5, NSH 3. The chances read BUF 3.3, NSH 5.2.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

BUF

+1.7

goals above expected

BUF3.30 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

NSH5.15 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

The Sabres scored 1.7 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 08:11BUFN. Ostlund1–0
P1 11:45BUFN. Ostlund2–0
P1 17:24BUFK. Helenius3–0
P2 04:20BUFT. Thompson4–0
P2 10:09NSHR. O'ReillyPP4–1
P2 11:54NSHF. Forsberg4–2
P3 09:30NSHR. O'Reilly4–3

+1 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

BUF

39 shots

Final

102 shots

NSH

63 shots

BUF NSH GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 5 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

BUFNSH

1 / 4

1.23 xG

High danger

1 / 7

1.87 xG

3 / 11

1.32 xG

Medium

1 / 20

2.27 xG

1 / 32

0.75 xG

Low

1 / 56

1.01 xG

High-danger looks: BUF 1 of 4, NSH 1 of 7.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

J. Annunen

+3.3

NSH · 13/13

A. Lyon

+2.1

BUF · 31/34

+1 more on the full breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Sabres hold off the Predators

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 14–8

08:11BUFN. Ostlund(K. Helenius, R. Dahlin)1–0
11:45BUFN. Ostlund(K. Helenius, O. Power)2–0
17:24BUFK. Helenius(P. Krebs)3–0

2ndshots 11–12

04:20BUFT. Thompson(A. Tuch, J. Doan)4–0
10:09NSHR. O'Reillypower play(F. Forsberg, B. Skjei)4–1
11:54NSHF. Forsberg(R. O'Reilly)4–2

3rdshots 8–14

09:30NSHR. O'Reilly(L. Evangelista, F. Forsberg)4–3
18:14BUFP. Krebsempty net(M. Samuelsson)5–3

score reads BUF–NSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.30

BUF chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.7

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.070

BUF puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

36.2%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.30Expected goals5.15

NSH 61% of the chance quality

33Shots on goal34

4High-danger chances7

47All attempts (Corsi)83

Adjusted for score: BUF 31% · NSH 70%

Faceoffs · NSH won57%off61%neu48%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

BUF1 / 4 · 1.23 xG

NSH1 / 7 · 1.87 xG

Medium dangermid-range

BUF3 / 11 · 1.32 xG

NSH1 / 20 · 2.27 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

BUF1 / 32 · 0.75 xG

NSH1 / 56 · 1.01 xG

BUF went 3-for-11 from medium danger on 1.32 expected goals — 1.7 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

BUF

5 G · 3.30 xG · +1.7

NSH

3 G · 5.15 xG · -2.1

0123456

BUF finished +1.7 against expected, NSH -2.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

BUF

WRIST3/24

SNAP1/9

SLAP0/2

BACKHAND1/4

TIP IN0/0

OTHER0/8

NSH

WRIST3/31

SNAP0/5

SLAP0/11

BACKHAND0/7

TIP IN0/9

OTHER0/20

BUF

NSH

Off the rush

3 G on 30

2.06 xG

3 G on 35

2.82 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 2

0.34 xG

0 G on 9

1.72 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: BUF went 3-for-24, NSH 3-for-31. BUF scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

A. Lyon

BUF · 31/34 · .912

+2.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/71.9+0.9

Medium1/202.3+1.3

Low1/561.0+0.0

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Annunen

NSH · 13/13 · 1.000

+3.3

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/41.2+0.2

Medium3/111.3-1.7

Low1/320.8-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Saros

NSH · 15/19 · .789

-0.7

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/41.2+0.2

Medium3/111.3-1.7

Low1/320.8-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

102 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

BUF

39 shots

Final

102 shots

NSH

63 shots

BUF NSH GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — BUF left, NSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

R. O'Reilly

#90 · C · NSH

2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 20:42 on ice · +2

F. Forsberg

#9 · L · NSH

1 G · 2 A · 7 SOG · 19:38 on ice · +1

K. Helenius

#94 · C · BUF

1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 14:43 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Jan 20

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 1:50 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.6-2.6 game with the Predators at 52% win probability—about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Recent form tilts marginally toward Buffalo. Nashville has posted a -5 goal differential over their last ten, a sign they're struggling to separate from competition even in close games. Buffalo's underlying metrics edge ahead: 50.0% expected goals share to Nashville's 49.0%, and a 49.0% Corsi advantage versus the Predators' 50.0%. There's a caveat, though. Buffalo's 1.020 PDO is running hot; expect some regression there. Nashville's 0.992 PDO tells the opposite story—they've been marginally unlucky and could be due for positive variance.

The goaltending situation adds another layer of uncertainty. U. Luukkonen is on a back-to-back, so Buffalo may turn to a backup or field a fatigued starter. That's another tilt toward Nashville.

Players to Watch

Buffalo

Jason Zucker: 1.07 xG/60, 14G 14A, 6 HD goals, 15.1% shooting
Josh Doan: 1.01 xG/60, 15G 18A, 2 HD goals, 11.5% shooting

Nashville

Zachary L'Heureux: 0.85 xG/60, 4G 0A, 1 HD goal, 16.0% shooting
Filip Forsberg: 0.80 xG/60, 23G 17A, 4 HD goals, 13.6% shooting

Zucker is Nashville's primary defensive focus; Forsberg is Buffalo's. Jack Quinn is where Buffalo's defense leaks; Jonathan Marchessault fills the same role for Nashville. In a game this close, execution on those assignments determines the margin.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NSH 52%

51%

NSH

Model favorite

49%

51%

BUF50NSH

NSH by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score BUF 2.6–2.6 NSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

BUF← edge

edge →NSH

50.0%49.0%

49.0%50.0%

2.552.48

2.552.58

2.351.84

1.902.21

1.0200.992

BUF holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.020 vs 0.992) says BUF has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

BUF

6-3-1

+8 GD · 1d rest

NSH

6-4-0

-5 GD · 2d rest

1.020

BUF PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.992

NSH PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Sabres' PDO is 1.020 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

U. Luukkonen is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Predators are underwater at -5 goal differential over their last 10.
The Sabres' PDO is 1.020 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

BUF

Expected in goal

U. Luukkonen

back-to-back.931 last start

Backup Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · +10.5 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NSH

Expected in goal

J. Annunen

2 days rest.806 last start

Backup Juuse Saros · -9.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

BUF

Jason Zucker14G 14A

1.07 xG/60 · 6 HD · 15.1% sh

Josh Doan15G 18A

1.01 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.5% sh

NSH

Zachary L'Heureux4G 0A

0.85 xG/60 · 1 HD · 16.0% sh

Filip Forsberg23G 17A

0.80 xG/60 · 4 HD · 13.6% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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