The Jets stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.43–2.55 and won anyway.
Winnipeg stole this one. The Jets beat St. Louis 3–1 despite ceding 57% of expected goals at 5v5, a margin that should have punished them — instead, E. Comrie's 0.957 save percentage flipped the script.
The Blues generated 3.43 xG to the Jets' 2.55, a gap that translates to roughly one goal's worth of missed opportunity. But St. Louis couldn't finish. They went 0-for-5 on high-danger chances and left five rebound chances unconverted. That wastefulness cost them the game.
Winnipeg's response was ruthless: 2-for-4 on high-danger chances (50%), clinical execution where it mattered most. The Jets also dominated special teams, scoring twice on seven power-play opportunities — both goals from higher-quality looks than the regular 5v5 play suggested they should have.
The turning point came in the third when Mark Scheifele fired a wrist shot from the wing, a moment that reflected the larger dynamic: the Blues had the territory and the chances, but Winnipeg had the killer instinct when it counted.
E. Comrie deserves the lion's share of credit. He stopped 2.4 goals above expected, including a flawless 5-for-5 performance against high-danger attempts. It was the kind of goaltending that swallows a team's process advantage and hands you a win you had no business taking.
