Motion-blurred skater in a New Jersey Devils sweater

Breakdown · NJD at EDM

J. Allen stands tall as the Devils edge the Oilers

FinalTue, Jan 20

NJDNew Jersey Devils2 EDMEdmonton Oilers1

The verdict · stolen

The Devils stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.20–3.52 and won anyway.

NJD 2 · EDM 1

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 1:59 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Oilers generated more quality — shot attempts at 57%, expected goals at 3.52 to 3.20, high-danger chances at 5-3 — and still lost 2-1. J. Allen's goaltending erased that advantage.

Allen stopped 22 of 23 shots for a 0.957 save percentage, saving 2.52 goals above expected. On high-danger chances, he was perfect: 5 for 5. Edmonton couldn't convert any of those opportunities — a variance that won't repeat often.

T. Jarry faced fewer shots (17 total) but also performed well, saving 1.20 goals above expected on a 0.882 save percentage. The issue wasn't his performance. Edmonton's problem was finishing. They created four rebound opportunities and converted none — crashing the net without result.

Cody Glass's snap shot from the high slot in the second period (08:32) broke the game open. New Jersey scored two goals on 3.20 expected goals; Edmonton scored one on 3.52. The Devils underperformed by 1.20; the Oilers underperformed by 2.52. Allen made that gap.

C. Glass and A. Gritsyuk each finished 1-1 (goal and assist). D. Hamilton added an assist. Process wins over time. Tonight, one outlier save rate decided it.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Jan 20

NJD

EDM

J. Allen stands tall as the Devils edge the Oilers

Chances 3.2 – 3.5Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Devils took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

NJD

3.20

EDM

3.52

48% of the chances52%

The board read NJD 2, EDM 1. The chances read NJD 3.2, EDM 3.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NJD

−1.2

goals above expected

NJD3.20 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

EDM3.52 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Oilers left 2.5 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P2 05:23NJDA. Gritsyuk1–0
P2 07:02EDMM. Savoie1–1
P2 08:32NJDC. Glass2–1

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NJD

34 shots

Final

77 shots

EDM

43 shots

NJD EDM GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 2 in

shots · 1 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NJDEDM

0 / 3

1.09 xG

High danger

0 / 5

1.23 xG

2 / 16

1.68 xG

Medium

1 / 14

1.71 xG

0 / 27

0.44 xG

Low

0 / 36

0.58 xG

The Oilers went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

J. Allen

+2.5

NJD · 22/23

B+

T. Jarry

+1.2

EDM · 15/17

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

J. Allen stands tall as the Devils edge the Oilers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 4–4no goals

2ndshots 10–6

05:23NJDA. Gritsyuk(C. Glass, D. Hamilton)1–0
07:02EDMM. Savoie(J. Walman, I. Howard)1–1
08:32NJDC. Glass(A. Gritsyuk, C. Brown)2–1

3rdshots 3–13no goals

score reads NJD–EDM

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.20

NJD chances

Goals their shots were worth

−1.2

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.025

NJD puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

45.5%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.20Expected goals3.52

EDM 52% of the chance quality

17Shots on goal23

3High-danger chances5

46All attempts (Corsi)55

Adjusted for score: NJD 43% · EDM 57%

Faceoffs · EDM won64%off75%neu47%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NJD0 / 3 · 1.09 xG

EDM0 / 5 · 1.23 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NJD2 / 16 · 1.68 xG

EDM1 / 14 · 1.71 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NJD0 / 27 · 0.44 xG

EDM0 / 36 · 0.58 xG

EDM went 0-for-5 from high danger on 1.23 expected goals — 1.2 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NJD

2 G · 3.20 xG · -1.2

EDM

1 G · 3.52 xG · -2.5

01234

NJD finished -1.2 against expected, EDM -2.5.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NJD

WRIST0/21

SNAP2/7

SLAP0/0

TIP IN0/1

BACKHAND0/3

DEFLECTED0/1

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/12

EDM

WRIST0/21

SNAP0/3

SLAP0/9

TIP IN1/5

BACKHAND0/2

DEFLECTED0/2

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/12

NJD

EDM

Off the rush

1 G on 23

2.28 xG

0 G on 23

2.45 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 1

0.06 xG

0 G on 4

0.56 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NJD went 0-for-21, EDM 0-for-21.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Allen

NJD · 22/23 · .957

+2.5

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/51.2+1.2

Medium1/141.7+0.7

Low0/360.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

T. Jarry

EDM · 15/17 · .882

+1.2

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/31.1+1.1

Medium2/161.7-0.3

Low0/270.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

77 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NJD

34 shots

Final

77 shots

EDM

43 shots

NJD EDM GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NJD left, EDM right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

C. Glass

#12 · C · NJD

1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 14:34 on ice · +2

A. Gritsyuk

#81 · R · NJD

1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 13:05 on ice · +2

D. Hamilton

#7 · D · NJD

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 19:55 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Jan 20

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:09 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model sees this as essentially a pick'em. Oddsmakers project a 2.5-to-2.7-goal game with Edmonton at 54% win probability—close enough that the Oilers' slight edge is barely meaningful.

New Jersey sits underwater at -14 goal differential over its last 10 games. The Devils have better possession numbers (50.0% xG%, 51.0% Corsi%) than the eye-line may suggest, but neither team dominates the underlying play. Edmonton edges them in expected goals share (52.0% xG%) while trailing in shot volume (50.0% Corsi%).

Both teams have PDOs screaming regression. Edmonton sits at 0.982; New Jersey at 0.971. That's cold on both sides. Positive variance is coming for whoever can take it.

C. Ingram handles the Devils' net on back-to-back—watch whether New Jersey starts a fresh arm or leans on a fatigued starter.

The real danger zones belong to the stars. Timo Meier drives the Devils, sitting at 1.08 xG per 60 with 13 goals and 15 assists, including 3 high-danger chances and a 6.7% shooting rate that leaves room for variance. Jack Hughes (0.88 xG/60, 18G 17A, 11.5% shoot rate) is the creative engine, though his 1 high-danger goal suggests finishing upside.

Edmonton's high-end talent is scarier. Connor McDavid (0.92 xG/60, 25G 33A, 5 HD goals, 13.7% shoot rate) generates and converts. Zach Hyman (1.23 xG/60, 14G 13A, 13.0% shoot rate) is their most dangerous volume scorer—his high-danger conversion rate sits at just 1 goal from his chances, leaving room for both positive and negative regression.

New Jersey's defense hinges on Johnathan Kovacevic, a known weak link. Edmonton has Jake Walman in the same position. Both teams are generating 0% of their goals from high-danger and rebound situations—a stat that can't last. Whoever normalizes first gets a small edge in a game that's otherwise a coin flip.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

EDM 54%

54%

EDM

Model favorite

46%

54%

NJD50EDM

EDM by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NJD 2.5–2.7 EDM; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NJD← edge

edge →EDM

50.0%52.0%

51.0%50.0%

2.452.64

2.502.47

1.662.13

2.232.29

0.9710.982

EDM holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.971 vs 0.982) says EDM has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NJD

4-6-0

-14 GD · 2d rest

EDM

5-3-2

+9 GD · 1d rest

0.971

NJD PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.982

EDM PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Oilers' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.
The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

C. Ingram is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Devils are underwater at -14 goal differential over their last 10.
The Oilers' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NJD

Expected in goal

J. Markstrom

2 days rest.886 last start

Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

EDM

Expected in goal

C. Ingram

back-to-back1.000 last start

Backup Connor Ingram · +1.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NJD

Timo Meier13G 15A

1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh

Jack Hughes18G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh

EDM

Zach Hyman14G 13A

1.23 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.0% sh

Connor McDavid25G 33A

0.92 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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