The Mammoth stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.28–3.81 and won anyway.
The underlying numbers said the Flyers should have won. They didn't.
Utah's 5-4 overtime victory came despite Philadelphia's 4.28 expected goals to Utah's 3.81—a 53-47 split that favored the Flyers' process. But the Mammoth turned that disadvantage into a win through ruthless efficiency: they overperformed their xG by 1.19 goals, converting at a rate their model said they shouldn't.
The Flyers dominated with the man advantage. Their power play generated 1.55 xG across 19 shots, converting twice—exactly what dominance looks like when you create volume and finish it. Utah's efficiency told a different story: just 5 power play shots, 0.33 xG, and 2 goals. Translation: Utah didn't need space to score; they scored when they got it.
That pattern extended to even strength. Utah rode rush chances with the efficiency of a team hunting on the break: 5 goals on 35 rush attempts. Philadelphia generated 7 rebound opportunities and converted 3, crashing the net effectively, but couldn't generate the quality Utah found without working for it.
The goaltending mismatch sealed it. Samuel Ersson faced 27 shots and stopped 22, posting a 0.815 save percentage—1.19 goals worse than expected for his workload. Karel Vejmelka faced 29 shots and stopped 25, a 0.862 mark that was solid if not dominant. One collapsed; one held.
Clayton Keller finished the job in overtime at 2:01, completing a line with 2 goals and 1 assist that mirrored the evening: Utah scoring when it mattered most. Dvorak anchored Philadelphia's side with 2 goals and 1 assist through 22:15, but one more second-period stand from Ersson might have changed everything.